Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T03:01:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
05 0x051b…59ea other 41 markets active 2h ago coverage 456d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate41%16W / 23L
Drawdown87%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$3
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 60% +$2
other 21% $0
politics 7% $0
economics 5% $0
tech 3% $0
weather 2% $0
sports 2% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +1.1% -8.5% 50% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 15 +0.7% -8.9% 47% 7% -9.3%
≤90d 15 +0.7% -8.9% 47% 7% -9.3%
all 39 +0.4% -9.2% 41% 3% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 3% -9.3%
10% -17.8% 0% -17.9%
15% -25.8% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 66% · top 2 76% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.78 per $1 lost it wins $1.78
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

456d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses16 / 23
Open positions2
Markets (closed)39 / 41
History coverage456d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown87%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Alberta join the US? Yes 5¢ 3¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-33%)
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-82%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $48 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $2 $0 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 15 $59 +$1 +1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $38 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $36 −$1 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $20 +$4 +18%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $84 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $43 −$1 -1%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 11 $9 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $45 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 09 $46 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 09 $45 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 09 $18 −$2 -8%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 08 $13 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $46 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? Jul 09 $25 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 09 $11 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 08 $11 $0 +0%
Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be between 0% and -1%? Jul 08 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 08 $11 $0 +0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jul 08 $11 $0 +0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Jul 08 $19 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Jul 08 $2 $0 +1%
Will Jaime Dunn win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jul 07 $11 $0 -1%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 07 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 07 $11 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 07 $11 $0 +0%
Will "Jurassic World" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $150m? Jul 06 $10 $0 -1%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 06 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Jul 06 $12 $0 +0%
Will Vitinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 06 $1 $0 -1%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 World Series? Jul 03 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2025 World Series? Jul 02 $13 $0 +0%
Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jul 01 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Jul 01 $12 $0 +0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jun 24 $14 $0 +3%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.37-1.41ºC in March 2025? Mar 30 $14 $0 +2%
Will Trump say "the blacks" by March 28? Mar 28 $13 $0 +3%
Will Bayer Leverkusen win the Bundesliga? Mar 24 $12 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $48 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $48 3h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $48 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 89¢ $47 7d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 7d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 7d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 7d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $37 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $1 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 40¢ $38 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 49¢ $2 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 49¢ $4 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 49¢ $28 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 50¢ $14 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 50¢ $22 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 26¢ $21 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 26¢ $2 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 22¢ $20 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $44 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $44 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 17¢ $3 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 17¢ $9 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 17¢ $12 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $43 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $43 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.01 · official $0.00 (match) · 116 history records