Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T19:47:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
05 0x051b…d9af crypto 683 markets active 2h ago coverage 101d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$517 (+1%) realized +$517 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate96%656W / 27L
Drawdown48%max
Avg bet$96per market
Trades / day13.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$281
7 days−$262
14 days−$82
30 days+$345
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$510
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 -6.0% -15.0% 91% 2% -15.1%
≤30d 196 +1.8% -7.9% 97% 5% -7.9%
≤90d 593 +1.3% -8.3% 97% 5% -8.5%
all 683 +1.0% -8.6% 96% 5% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 5% -8.8%
10% -17.3% 0% -17.5%
15% -25.3% 0% -25.5%
20% -32.6% 0% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$88 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.22 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

101d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$517
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses656 / 27
Open positions0
Markets (closed)683 / 683
History coverage101d
Avg bet$96
Trades / day13.5
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 683 Trades
no open positions (19 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1PM ET Jun 29 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9PM ET Jun 29 $100 +$5 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 9PM ET Jun 29 $100 +$6 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 8PM ET Jun 29 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7PM ET Jun 29 $99 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 4PM ET Jun 28 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12PM ET Jun 28 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5PM ET Jun 27 $100 −$100 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 5PM ET Jun 27 $100 −$100 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 7AM ET Jun 27 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7AM ET Jun 27 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4AM ET Jun 27 $100 +$3 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 3PM ET Jun 26 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11AM ET Jun 26 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5AM ET Jun 26 $100 +$11 +11%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 3AM ET Jun 26 $100 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3AM ET Jun 26 $100 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9PM ET Jun 26 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6PM ET Jun 25 $100 +$2 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 6PM ET Jun 25 $101 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6AM ET Jun 25 $100 +$5 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 4AM ET Jun 25 $100 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4AM ET Jun 25 $100 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3AM ET Jun 25 $100 +$3 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 2AM ET Jun 25 $100 +$3 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 1AM ET Jun 25 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4PM ET Jun 24 $101 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1PM ET Jun 24 $100 +$2 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 12PM ET Jun 24 $100 −$100 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 5AM ET Jun 24 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5AM ET Jun 24 $100 +$3 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 1AM ET Jun 24 $100 +$5 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 1AM ET Jun 24 $100 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1AM ET Jun 24 $100 +$6 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 10PM ET Jun 24 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5PM ET Jun 23 $50 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7AM ET Jun 23 $100 +$3 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 7AM ET Jun 23 $100 +$8 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 7AM ET Jun 23 $100 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12AM ET Jun 23 $100 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6PM ET Jun 22 $100 +$2 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 5PM ET Jun 22 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5PM ET Jun 22 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1PM ET Jun 22 $100 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12PM ET Jun 22 $100 +$2 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 8PM ET Jun 22 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8PM ET Jun 22 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7PM ET Jun 22 $100 +$3 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 12PM ET Jun 21 $100 +$9 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4AM ET Jun 21 $100 +$2 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 9PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $100 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $13 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $38 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $38 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $11 18h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 8PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $100 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $99 20h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 4PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $100 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $21 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $79 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $38 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $24 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $27 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $11 46h
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 5PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $100 46h
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 7AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $100 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $100 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $7 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $39 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $39 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $13 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $3 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 3PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $100 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $100 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 3AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $100 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $100 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $11 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $44 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2026 history records