Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:55:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
05 0x0521…fe95 other 20 markets active 3h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$22 (+6%) realized +$22 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%9W / 11L
Drawdown92%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day10.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% +$3
sports 23% +$18
crypto 15% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)+2.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +12.9% +2.1% 45% 45% -5.3%
≤30d 20 +12.9% +2.1% 45% 45% -5.3%
≤90d 20 +12.9% +2.1% 45% 45% -5.3%
all 20 +12.9% +2.1% 45% 45% -5.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.1% 45% -5.3%
10% -7.6% 45% -14.4%
15% -16.6% 35% -22.6%
20% -24.8% 30% -30.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late +13% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$6 · ×1.53 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.25 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$22
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses9 / 11
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)20 / 20
History coverage4d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day10.1
Drawdown92%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 20 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$9 -88%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $10 −$5 -48%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $37 +$17 +46%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $5 −$3 -60%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $21 +$13 +62%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $98 −$38 -38%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 +$8 +165%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $42 +$13 +32%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $22 +$15 +66%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $28 −$1 -3%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $6 $0 -5%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $5 +$5 +107%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 13 $21 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$3 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$3 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +29%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$6 +111%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 3h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 3h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 3h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 30¢ $5 6h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 56¢ $10 7h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $53 11h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 72¢ $32 12h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 21¢ $2 12h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 12h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $5 23h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $34 38h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 61¢ $21 39h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 39¢ $26 39h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $62 40h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 90¢ $35 40h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 93¢ $36 42h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $13 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $5 2d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $56 3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 93¢ $32 3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 99¢ $37 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $22 3d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 75¢ $27 3d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 76¢ $28 3d
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 53¢ $6 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $11 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $5 3d
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $6 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 81¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 49 history records