Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:29:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
05 0x0521…6af5 sports 78 markets active 2h ago coverage 58d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge
Total PnL +$40 (+11%) realized +$40 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +17% what you keep after slip
Net edge+17%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate41%32W / 46L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$34
7 days+$31
14 days+$30
30 days+$60
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% +$11
other 2% +$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)+16.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +507.6% +449.7% 50% 50% +457.2%
≤30d 20 +103.4% +84.0% 55% 55% +74.8%
≤90d 78 +29.1% +16.8% 41% 41% +0.6%
all 78 +29.1% +16.8% 41% 41% +0.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +16.8% 41% +0.6%
10% +5.6% 41% -9.0%
15% -4.6% 40% -17.8%
20% -13.9% 35% -25.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +29% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late +53% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$4 · ×1.72 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$40
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses32 / 46
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)78 / 78
History coverage58d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 78 Trades
no open positions (43 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 21 $3 +$34 +1115%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $3 +$3 +101%
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5) Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $3 +$4 +129%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $3 +$3 +109%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $3 +$3 +101%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $3 +$2 +50%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $5 −$5 -99%
Will The MongolZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -97%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $3 +$2 +76%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 08 $3 −$3 -98%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $3 +$3 +101%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $3 +$30 +980%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $3 +$4 +119%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $3 −$3 -98%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $3 +$3 +87%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 05 $3 −$3 -98%
Counter-Strike: BC.Game Esports vs paiN (BO3) - CS Asia Championships May 21 $3 −$3 -98%
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Liquid (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group B May 21 $4 +$4 +97%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group B May 20 $3 −$3 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Kiwoom DRX - Game 2 Winner May 20 $3 +$17 +549%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs PARIVISION (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group May 20 $5 −$5 -99%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs TYLOO (BO1) - CS Asia Championships Group A May 20 $3 +$11 +364%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 15 $3 +$2 +65%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 15 $1 −$1 -97%
LoL: T1 vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 2 Winner May 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs magic (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 13 $6 −$6 -98%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs BC.Game Esports - Map 2 Winner May 12 $3 −$3 -98%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs BC.Game Esports (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A May 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 12 $5 +$2 +34%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Group St May 12 $5 +$3 +54%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner May 11 $3 −$3 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 11 $8 +$4 +50%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs 9z (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 10 $6 −$6 -99%
LoL: T1 vs DN SOOPers - Game 2 Winner May 08 $3 −$3 -97%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 08 $3 −$3 -98%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 07 $3 +$6 +188%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 07 $6 +$5 +89%
LoL: Top Esports vs JD Gaming - Game 2 Winner May 06 $10 −$10 -99%
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs Nongshim Red Force (+1.5) May 06 $3 −$3 -98%
Wuxi: Fajing Sun vs Rio Noguchi May 06 $3 −$3 -99%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs DN SOOPers - Game 2 Winner May 05 $2 −$2 -98%
Wuxi: Rio Noguchi vs Petr Bar Biryukov May 05 $3 −$3 -98%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs: O/U 216.5 May 05 $3 −$3 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $37 2h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 29¢ $3 6d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL TheMongolz 100¢ $6 7d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 49¢ $3 7d
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5) BUY Gen.G 51¢ $3 7d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster 24¢ $3 8d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner BUY Gen.G 43¢ $3 8d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 100¢ $6 9d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Hanwha Life Esports 49¢ $3 9d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 47¢ $3 9d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 66¢ $3 9d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 39¢ $3 9d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S BUY TheMongolz 59¢ $5 10d
Will The MongolZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 11d
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY B8 56¢ $3 12d
Games Total: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 20¢ $3 13d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY B8 49¢ $3 14d
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL KT Rolster 100¢ $33 14d
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY KT Rolster 9¢ $3 14d
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster 45¢ $3 14d
Counter-Strike: paiN vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY paiN 48¢ $3 15d
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 SELL NRG 39¢ $6 16d
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY NRG 20¢ $3 16d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 26¢ $3 16d
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 17d
Counter-Strike: BC.Game Esports vs paiN (BO3) - CS Asia Championships BUY BC.Game Esports 44¢ $3 31d
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Liquid (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group B SELL Liquid 100¢ $8 31d
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Liquid (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group B BUY Liquid 50¢ $4 31d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group B BUY TheMongolz 68¢ $3 32d
LoL: T1 vs Kiwoom DRX - Game 2 Winner SELL Kiwoom DRX 100¢ $20 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 116 history records