Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T22:58:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
05 0x0523…057f sports 169 markets active 2h ago coverage 167d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$9 (-0%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate7%11W / 158L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 30% −$2
other 20% −$4
politics 19% −$1
economics 10% $0
crypto 7% −$1
world 6% −$1
culture 4% −$1
tech 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.6% -10.1% 0% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 3 -0.6% -10.1% 0% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 4 -1.1% -10.5% 0% 0% -10.2%
all 169 -0.7% -10.2% 7% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.8% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 78% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×2.43 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.26 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

167d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses11 / 158
Open positions0
Markets (closed)169 / 169
History coverage167d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 169 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 20 $49 $0 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $47 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $176 $0 -0%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 18 $47 −$1 -3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Feb 22 $227 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Feb 22 $107 $0 -0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 22 $17 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026? Feb 22 $52 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Feb 22 $113 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Red Wings win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 22 $51 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 22 $58 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 20, 2026 (ET)? Feb 22 $54 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 22 $5 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Feb 22 $51 $0 -0%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 22 $114 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 22 $57 $0 -0%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 22 $94 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 22 $9 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 22 $108 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 22 $52 $0 -0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 22 $147 $0 -0%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 22 $137 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 22 $58 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 22 $57 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 22 $54 $0 -0%
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 22 $119 $0 -0%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? Feb 22 $58 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 22 $118 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 22 $54 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 22 $59 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 22 $242 $0 -0%
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 22 $114 $0 -0%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 22 $91 $0 -0%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 22 $59 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026? Feb 22 $61 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Feb 22 $121 $0 -0%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 22 $243 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 22 $90 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 22 $182 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Feb 22 $248 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 22 $120 $0 -0%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? Feb 21 $35 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 6, 2026 (ET)? Feb 21 $54 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Feb 20 $54 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 20 $56 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Feb 17 $119 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 17 $110 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 17 $117 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 17 $119 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 17 $54 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 93¢ $49 1h
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 94¢ $49 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $46 11d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $47 11d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $53 19d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $53 19d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 92¢ $46 33d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $47 33d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $58 118d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $58 118d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me SELL No 97¢ $52 118d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me BUY No 97¢ $52 118d
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? SELL No 96¢ $3 118d
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $52 118d
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? BUY No 96¢ $3 118d
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 95¢ $1 118d
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $52 118d
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 95¢ $51 118d
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 95¢ $52 118d
Will the Detroit Red Wings win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 98¢ $51 118d
Will the Detroit Red Wings win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 98¢ $51 118d
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $58 118d
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $58 118d
Will the US next strike Iran on March 20, 2026 (ET)? SELL No 98¢ $53 118d
Will the US next strike Iran on March 20, 2026 (ET)? BUY No 98¢ $54 118d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 93¢ $4 118d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 93¢ $5 118d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee SELL Yes 96¢ $51 118d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee BUY Yes 96¢ $51 118d
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 92¢ $54 118d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 498 history records