Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T09:36:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
05 0x0523…7b85 world 75 markets active 1h ago coverage 72d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$420 (-16%) realized −$338 · open −$82
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate49%29W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$258now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$31
7 days+$31
14 days+$31
30 days+$31
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 77% −$293
politics 11% −$72
other 9% −$24
sports 1% −$35
finance 1% +$2
culture 1% −$3
crypto 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-32.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +21.0% +9.4% 83% 83% +12.8%
≤30d 6 +21.0% +9.4% 83% 83% +12.8%
≤90d 59 -25.0% -32.1% 49% 34% -24.0%
all 59 -25.0% -32.1% 49% 34% -24.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.1% 34% -24.0%
10% -38.6% 31% -31.3%
15% -44.5% 19% -37.9%
20% -50.0% 12% -44.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -41% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$27 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$258
Realized−$338
Unrealized−$82
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses29 / 30
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions16
Markets (closed)59 / 75
History coverage72d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 59 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Trump out as President before 2027? Yes 17¢ 10¢ $100 $56 −$44 (-44%)
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Yes 47¢ 71¢ $20 $30 +$10 (+50%)
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 65¢ 73¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+12%)
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? No 63¢ 69¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+10%)
Will Steve Witkoff sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? No 75¢ 73¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 28¢ 24¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-12%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 39¢ 34¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-13%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 19¢ 16¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-16%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? Yes 56¢ 36¢ $20 $13 −$7 (-35%)
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $15 $12 −$3 (-21%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Yes 61¢ 22¢ $20 $7 −$13 (-65%)
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 27¢ 18¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-31%)
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? Yes 10¢ 6¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-45%)
Trump out as President by June 30? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-81%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? No 35¢ 3¢ $10 $1 −$9 (-91%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 16 $20 +$3 +14%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Jun 16 $20 −$12 -62%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $15 +$4 +28%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 15 $20 +$5 +27%
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? Jun 15 $30 +$21 +70%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? Jun 15 $20 +$10 +49%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 13 $16 −$15 -96%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? May 12 $10 −$10 -98%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? May 09 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 09 $23 −$21 -93%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 07 $40 +$1 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 06 $30 −$30 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 06 $50 +$14 +29%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 06 $20 +$1 +5%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 06 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 06 $10 −$10 -100%
Trump out as President by May 31? May 05 $1 −$1 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? May 05 $20 −$20 -100%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 05 $20 +$1 +3%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st? May 05 $30 +$49 +163%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026? Apr 29 $80 −$80 -100%
Kash Patel out by May 31? Apr 29 $10 −$10 -97%
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026? Apr 29 $20 +$9 +46%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026? Apr 27 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 21, 2026? Apr 27 $10 −$10 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 25, 2026? Apr 26 $30 −$30 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? Apr 25 $70 −$70 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026? Apr 25 $20 +$17 +86%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 25 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 24 $30 −$30 -100%
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? Apr 24 $80 −$80 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 29, 2026? Apr 24 $50 −$50 -100%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? Apr 24 $100 +$33 +33%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 23 $70 −$70 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Apr 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Apr 22 $20 +$2 +11%
Will Trump agree to Iranian Oil sanction relief in April? Apr 22 $20 +$7 +34%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? Apr 22 $190 +$16 +9%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026? Apr 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 21, 2026? Apr 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? Apr 22 $20 +$7 +33%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 22 $20 +$9 +45%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 22 $130 +$65 +50%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? Apr 22 $30 +$67 +224%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 20, 2026? Apr 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets in April? Apr 19 $40 −$13 -32%
Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by Ap Apr 19 $30 +$71 +235%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 18, 2026? Apr 19 $15 −$15 -100%
Will voter turnout be 77–80% in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary elect Apr 19 $20 −$20 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026? Apr 18 $35 +$3 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 83¢ $23 1h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 7h
Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 61¢ $20 7h
Will Steve Witkoff sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY No 75¢ $20 7h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? SELL Yes 18¢ $8 7h
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY Yes 47¢ $20 20h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 73¢ $20 21h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? BUY Yes 48¢ $20 21h
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 65¢ $20 21h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 92¢ $19 23h
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? SELL Yes 85¢ $25 25h
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? SELL Yes 75¢ $51 25h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY No 63¢ $20 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 35¢ $10 2d
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? BUY Yes 67¢ $20 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? BUY Yes 67¢ $20 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY Yes 56¢ $20 2d
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 33d
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 34d
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 37¢ $10 34d
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 34d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $30 38d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 0¢ $2 38d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? SELL Yes 7¢ $41 39d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 29¢ $20 40d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL Yes 28¢ $64 40d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 40d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 11¢ $10 40d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 60¢ $21 40d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 11¢ $3 40d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $257.66 · official $257.66 (match) · 215 history records