Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:25:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
05 0x0524…1479 sports 1302 markets active 1h ago coverage 39d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 38d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (56 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$3,831 (-5%) realized −$3,781 · open −$50
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate99%1260W / 17L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day55.9pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$2,357now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 39d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% −$819
politics 5% +$357
other 4% +$52
world 2% +$114
tech 1% +$2
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (56 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 116 +0.4% -9.2% 98% 3% -8.6%
≤30d 745 +0.1% -9.4% 99% 1% -9.7%
≤90d 1277 +0.3% -9.2% 99% 1% -9.8%
all 1277 +0.3% -9.2% 99% 1% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover55.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.2% 1% -9.8%
10% ← realistic here -17.9% 1% -18.5%
15% -25.9% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$73 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

39d coverage
Net worth$2,357
Realized−$3,781
Unrealized−$50
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses1260 / 17
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions29
Markets (closed)1277 / 1302
History coverage39d ⚠
Avg bet$55
Trades / day55.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 29 History 1277 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump speak to Ursula von der Leyen in June? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $516 $520 +$4 (+1%)
Ebola pandemic in 2026? No 91¢ 92¢ $201 $204 +$3 (+1%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No 91¢ 96¢ $174 $182 +$9 (+5%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? No 81¢ 86¢ $146 $157 +$11 (+7%)
New pandemic in 2026? No 89¢ 90¢ $134 $134 +$1 (+1%)
Counter-Strike: INFURITY Gaming vs Alpha Gaming - Map 2 Winner INFURITY Gaming 100¢ 100¢ $105 $105 +$0 (+0%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by July 31? No 96¢ 97¢ $99 $99 +$1 (+1%)
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: The World vs Aterion Esports - Game 1 Winner The World 100¢ 95¢ $100 $95 −$5 (-5%)
Will Trump meet with Giorgia Meloni by December 31, 2026? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $80 $80 +$0 (+0%)
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: The World vs Aterion Esports - Game 2 Winner Aterion Esports 100¢ 100¢ $80 $80 +$0 (+0%)
Hantavirus outbreak by June 30? No 88¢ 99¢ $66 $74 +$8 (+13%)
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: The World vs Aterion Esports (BO3) - BetBoom Rise of Legends Close Qualifiers Aterion Esports 100¢ 96¢ $75 $72 −$3 (-4%)
Will Trump be impeached before his term ends? Yes 69¢ 66¢ $70 $66 −$4 (-5%)
Set Handicap: Mertens (-1.5) vs Bartunkova (+1.5) Bartunkova 100¢ 100¢ $65 $65 +$0 (+0%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? No 96¢ 99¢ $58 $59 +$2 (+3%)
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? No 93¢ 95¢ $58 $59 +$1 (+2%)
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? Up 88¢ 86¢ $53 $52 −$1 (-2%)
Will there be at least 3000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? Yes 85¢ 82¢ $51 $50 −$2 (-3%)
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Yes 88¢ 82¢ $53 $50 −$3 (-6%)
Game Handicap: Aterion Esports (-1.5) vs The World (+1.5) The World 100¢ 50¢ $75 $38 −$37 (-50%)
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2026? No 94¢ 97¢ $28 $29 +$1 (+3%)
Macron out by June 30, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 96¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA fe vs METANOIA WOLVES - Map 1 Winner METANOIA WOLVES 100¢ 50¢ $31 $16 −$15 (-50%)
New Coronavirus Pandemic in 2026? No 95¢ 94¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tseng vs. Batalla: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $125 $0 +0%
Tseng vs. Batalla: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $125 $0 +0%
Tseng vs. Batalla: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 17 $125 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Keir Starmer in 2026? Jun 17 $100 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 17 $10 +$1 +13%
Game Handicap: PlayTime (-1.5) vs Estar Backs (+1.5) Jun 17 $75 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $125 $0 +0%
Game Handicap: LGD (-1.5) vs Lindorfitos (+1.5) Jun 16 $65 $0 +0%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $75 $0 +0%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Magic vs Omnix - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $55 $0 +0%
Set Handicap: Trevisan (-1.5) vs Monnet (+1.5) Jun 16 $80 $0 +0%
Game Handicap: CH (-1.5) vs HARD GRIND (+1.5) Jun 16 $75 $0 +0%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $55 $0 +0%
Set Handicap: Manas (-1.5) vs Raquillet (+1.5) Jun 16 $80 $0 +0%
Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June? Jun 16 $201 +$4 +2%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? Jun 16 $58 +$2 +3%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? Jun 16 $60 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 16 $10 +$1 +6%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Team Spirit Academy White vs Omnix - Game 2 Jun 15 $55 $0 +0%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $55 $0 +0%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $65 $0 +0%
Game Handicap: EB (-1.5) vs RisingRage (+1.5) Jun 15 $65 $0 +0%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: HARD GRIND vs Dark Phoenix - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $65 $0 +0%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: HARD GRIND vs Dark Phoenix (BO3) - BetBoom R Jun 15 $74 $0 +0%
Rainbow Six Siege: G2 Esports vs Shifters (BO1) - Europe MENA League S Jun 15 $85 $0 +0%
Game Handicap: GAL (-2.5) vs Solary (+2.5) Jun 15 $50 $0 +0%
Game Handicap: x5 (-1.5) vs Lindorfitos (+1.5) Jun 15 $50 $0 +0%
Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in June? Jun 15 $60 $0 +0%
Set Handicap: Jones (-1.5) vs Gibson (+1.5) Jun 15 $80 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $430 +$113 +26%
Rainbow Six Siege: 6Targets Esports vs Chiefs Esports Club (BO1) - Asi Jun 15 $55 $0 +0%
Set Handicap: Landaluce (-1.5) vs Atmane (+1.5) Jun 15 $75 $0 +0%
Rainbow Six Siege: Shaiikademy vs ENTERPRISE Esports (BO1) - Asia Paci Jun 15 $95 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $60 −$50 -84%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 15 $55 +$15 +28%
Rainbow Six Siege: FaZe Clan vs Fluxo W7M (BO1) - South America League Jun 15 $105 $0 +0%
Rainbow Six Siege: LOS vs LOUD (BO1) - South America League Stage 1 Gr Jun 14 $75 $0 +0%
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A Jun 14 $501 +$15 +3%
Will Armenia Alliance win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National Jun 14 $60 $0 +0%
Game Handicap: RED (-2.5) vs LOS (+2.5) Jun 14 $55 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Festina Lente vs Iowa Stormboar - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $138 $0 +0%
Map Handicap: TH (-1.5) vs Leviatán Esports (+1.5) Jun 14 $75 $0 +0%
Map Handicap: LEV (-1.5) vs Team Heretics (+1.5) Jun 14 $85 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $270 $0 +0%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: ONIC vs Bigetron by Vitality (BO7) - MPL Ind Jun 14 $85 $0 +0%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: ONIC vs Bigetron by Vitality - Game 5 Winner Jun 14 $65 $0 +0%
Rainbow Six Siege: Titan Esports Club vs Four Angry Men (BO3) - CN Lea Jun 14 $65 $0 +0%
Game Handicap: 4AM (-1.5) vs Titan Esports Club (+1.5) Jun 14 $55 $0 +0%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $75 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Set Handicap: Mertens (-1.5) vs Bartunkova (+1.5) BUY Bartunkova 100¢ $65 1h
Counter-Strike: INFURITY Gaming vs Alpha Gaming - Map 2 Winner BUY INFURITY Gaming 100¢ $20 1h
Counter-Strike: INFURITY Gaming vs Alpha Gaming - Map 2 Winner BUY INFURITY Gaming 100¢ $85 1h
Tseng vs. Batalla: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 BUY Under 100¢ $125 1h
Tseng vs. Batalla: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 BUY Under 100¢ $125 1h
Tseng vs. Batalla: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Under 100¢ $125 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL No 100¢ $11 6h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $5 10h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 100¢ $125 10h
Game Handicap: PlayTime (-1.5) vs Estar Backs (+1.5) BUY PlayTime 100¢ $75 11h
Game Handicap: LGD (-1.5) vs Lindorfitos (+1.5) BUY LGD Gaming 100¢ $65 13h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 100¢ $20 16h
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Magic vs Omnix - Game 2 Winner BUY Omnix 100¢ $55 16h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 100¢ $55 16h
Set Handicap: Trevisan (-1.5) vs Monnet (+1.5) BUY Monnet 100¢ $60 16h
Set Handicap: Trevisan (-1.5) vs Monnet (+1.5) BUY Monnet 100¢ $20 16h
Game Handicap: Aterion Esports (-1.5) vs The World (+1.5) BUY The World 100¢ $20 17h
Will Trump meet with Keir Starmer in 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 17h
Set Handicap: Manas (-1.5) vs Raquillet (+1.5) BUY Raquillet 100¢ $60 17h
Set Handicap: Manas (-1.5) vs Raquillet (+1.5) BUY Raquillet 100¢ $20 17h
Game Handicap: CH (-1.5) vs HARD GRIND (+1.5) BUY Cyber Hero 100¢ $20 17h
Game Handicap: CH (-1.5) vs HARD GRIND (+1.5) BUY Cyber Hero 100¢ $55 17h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 100¢ $55 17h
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? BUY Up 88¢ $53 18h
Will Trump speak to Ursula von der Leyen in June? BUY Yes 100¢ $31 23h
Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June? BUY Yes 100¢ $61 23h
Will Trump speak to Ursula von der Leyen in June? BUY Yes 99¢ $425 27h
Will Trump speak to Ursula von der Leyen in June? BUY Yes 99¢ $60 27h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? BUY No 100¢ $60 31h
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: The World vs Aterion Esports (BO3) - BetBoom BUY Aterion Esports 100¢ $20 37h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,357.36 · official $2,358.19 (match) · 3500 history records