Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:05:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

05 0x0524…6d19 other 4 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open −$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip

Net edge-11%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate100%1W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$34per market

Trades / day5.0pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit50%portable

Net worth$121now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-7.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	+2.5%	-7.3%	100%	0%	-7.3%
≤30d	1	+2.5%	-7.3%	100%	0%	-7.3%
≤90d	1	+2.5%	-7.3%	100%	0%	-7.3%
all	1	+2.5%	-7.3%	100%	0%	-7.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover5.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-7.3%	0%	-7.3%
10%	-16.1%	0%	-16.1%
15%	-24.2%	0%	-24.2%
20%	-31.7%	0%	-31.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +2% too few recent

Fragile wins

100% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +3% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$0 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$121

Realized+$0

Unrealized−$1

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses1 / 0

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions3

Markets (closed)1 / 4

History coverage1d

Avg bet$34

Trades / day5.0

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 1 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	18¢	18¢	$70	$70	−$0 (-0%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	14¢	14¢	$50	$50	−$0 (-0%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	No	42¢	36¢	$2	$2	−$0 (-15%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs	Jun 19	$10	$0	+2%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs	SELL Spirit	68¢	$10	6m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs	BUY Spirit	65¢	$10	1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	14¢	$51	1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	BUY No	42¢	$2	1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	18¢	$72	1h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $121.32 · official $121.32 (match) · 5 history records