Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T02:17:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
05 0x0525…c737 sports 216 markets active 1h ago coverage 68d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$381 (+8%) realized +$387 · open −$6
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate40%82W / 121L
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day9.3pace
Fees−$44est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$254now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11
7 days+$153
14 days+$123
30 days+$97
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 44% +$95
other 24% +$100
world 20% +$37
crypto 8% +$11
economics 2% −$8
tech 1% +$48
politics 0% −$1
culture 0% −$5
finance 0% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-4.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 +19.3% +8.0% 47% 47% +0.9%
≤30d 92 +10.5% -0.0% 42% 39% -6.4%
≤90d 203 +5.7% -4.4% 40% 38% -2.9%
all 203 +5.7% -4.4% 40% 38% -2.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.4% 38% -2.9%
10% -13.5% 33% -12.2%
15% -21.9% 31% -20.7%
20% -29.5% 27% -28.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$7 · ×1.98 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.34 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

68d coverage
Net worth$254
Realized+$387
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses82 / 121
Est. fees paid−$44
Open positions12
Markets (closed)203 / 216
History coverage68d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day9.3
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 203 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 54¢ 62¢ $50 $58 +$8 (+16%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-1%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $23 $23 +$0 (+1%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Yes 50¢ 40¢ $28 $23 −$5 (-19%)
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Athletics 56¢ 54¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-4%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $18 $17 −$1 (-6%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $15 $12 −$3 (-21%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $9 −$1 (-5%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $8 $7 −$1 (-8%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $8 $7 −$1 (-9%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $4 −$1 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 56 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $30 −$16 -52%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $24 +$18 +73%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 15 $8 $0 -5%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $20 +$19 +93%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 +$19 +93%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $18 −$18 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $51 +$11 +22%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $30 −$19 -62%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $20 −$1 -4%
Donyell Malen: 1+ goals Jun 14 $12 −$3 -23%
Cody Gakpo: 1+ goals Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $20 +$18 +89%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $20 +$24 +116%
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $15 −$3 -21%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $36 −$35 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $51 +$83 +162%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $40 +$23 +58%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $20 +$53 +259%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? Jun 13 $10 −$2 -14%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $61 +$53 +88%
Raphinha: 1+ goals Jun 13 $5 $0 -7%
Breel Embolo: 1+ goals Jun 13 $10 +$9 +88%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $76 −$75 -99%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $100 −$11 -11%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 13 $110 −$20 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 13 $15 −$5 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 13 $26 +$10 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$2 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +104%
Dan Ndoye: 1+ goals Jun 13 $8 −$8 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $16 −$16 -99%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $22 −$19 -88%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $28 +$30 +106%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $5 +$7 +143%
Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals Jun 13 $5 +$11 +206%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $7 −$1 -8%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $49 +$8 +15%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $30 +$13 +42%
Mexico leading at halftime? Jun 11 $10 +$11 +105%
Julián Quiñones: 1+ goals Jun 11 $5 +$11 +216%
Raúl Jiménez: 1+ goals Jun 11 $5 +$7 +146%
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $30 −$1 -4%
Will Spain reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 09 $15 −$2 -11%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 09 $86 +$85 +99%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 09 $33 +$17 +53%
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 08 $10 −$1 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 56¢ $20 37m
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score SELL No 20¢ $15 1h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score BUY No 25¢ $10 1h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score BUY No 52¢ $5 1h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score BUY No 58¢ $15 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 50¢ $28 1h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 99¢ $42 2h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $9 4h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $15 4h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY 45¢ $19 7h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 49¢ $8 9h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 59¢ $30 11h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 50¢ $8 19h
O/U 1.5 Rounds SELL Over 100¢ $39 21h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $39 22h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 52¢ $20 22h
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY Yes 58¢ $18 23h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $20 24h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car SELL Diego Lopes 99¢ $31 25h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car SELL Diego Lopes 58¢ $31 27h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $20 27h
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Over 51¢ $20 27h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 19¢ $12 29h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $10 30h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $30 30h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $20 30h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 54¢ $19 30h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 59¢ $51 30h
Donyell Malen: 1+ goals SELL Yes 24¢ $9 30h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $20 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $253.61 · official $253.61 (match) · 662 history records