Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T00:08:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
05 0x0527…a978 crypto 465 markets active 0h ago coverage 75d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$49 (+0%) realized +$52 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate67%312W / 152L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$79per market
Trades / day10.6pace
Fees−$204est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$297now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$81
7 days+$24
14 days−$390
30 days−$1,057
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 50% −$1,743
other 26% +$1,808
crypto 24% −$528
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +9.9% -0.5% 73% 67% -6.2%
≤30d 127 -6.3% -15.2% 58% 53% -13.2%
≤90d 464 -1.8% -11.1% 67% 52% -10.3%
all 464 -1.8% -11.1% 67% 52% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 52% -10.3%
10% -19.6% 40% -18.9%
15% -27.4% 29% -26.7%
20% -34.5% 21% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$69 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

75d coverage
Net worth$297
Realized+$52
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses312 / 152
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$204
Open positions1
Markets (closed)464 / 465
History coverage75d
Avg bet$79
Trades / day10.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 464 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $300 $297 −$3 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 72 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $234 +$28 +12%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $342 −$234 -68%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $302 −$138 -46%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $306 +$121 +40%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $403 +$26 +6%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $221 +$116 +52%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $302 +$69 +23%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $202 +$115 +57%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $116 +$104 +90%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $403 −$347 -86%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $511 −$509 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $506 +$288 +57%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $502 +$79 +16%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $203 +$222 +109%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $202 +$84 +42%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $202 +$84 +42%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $80 +$2 +3%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $51 +$4 +9%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $101 +$20 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 10 $41 −$40 -96%
Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 09 $101 −$100 -99%
Hungary vs. Kazakhstan: O/U 3.5 Jun 09 $101 +$8 +8%
Armenia vs. Moldova: O/U 3.5 Jun 09 $130 +$17 +13%
Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 1.5 Jun 08 $112 −$43 -38%
Modena: Martina Trevisan vs Jennifer Ruggeri Jun 08 $66 +$3 +4%
Morocco vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $15 −$11 -75%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $4 $0 -4%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $66 −$62 -94%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $90 −$25 -27%
England vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $26 −$26 -99%
Portugal vs. Chile: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $322 −$120 -37%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $61 −$60 -99%
Gibraltar vs. Cayman Islands: O/U 1.5 Jun 06 $55 +$8 +15%
Belgium vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 Jun 06 $301 −$12 -4%
Armenia vs. Kazakhstan: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $201 −$41 -20%
Belgium vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $101 +$71 +70%
Belgium vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 Jun 06 $101 +$23 +23%
Paraguay vs. Nicaragua: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $14 +$6 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 05 $4 +$9 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 05 $11 −$10 -97%
Azerbaijan vs. Malta: O/U 1.5 Jun 05 $307 −$303 -99%
Will Hungary win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $202 +$119 +59%
Hungary vs. Finland: O/U 1.5 Jun 05 $51 −$50 -98%
Georgia vs. Bahrain: O/U 1.5 Jun 05 $201 +$38 +19%
Singapore vs. China PR: O/U 1.5 Jun 05 $101 +$31 +31%
Guatemala vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 05 $101 +$55 +55%
France vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 04 $86 +$45 +52%
Slovenia vs. Cyprus: O/U 1.5 Jun 04 $64 +$22 +34%
Gibraltar vs. British Virgin Islands: O/U 2.5 Jun 03 $101 −$99 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $305 8m
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 100¢ $262 16m
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 89¢ $234 36m
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 22¢ $109 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 67¢ $342 2h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 40¢ $159 6h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 74¢ $302 7h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $306 25h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 85¢ $428 26h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 79¢ $403 27h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $221 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $302 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 63¢ $202 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $116 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 11¢ $56 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 77¢ $403 4d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 84¢ $511 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $506 4d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 86¢ $502 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $203 5d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 70¢ $202 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $202 7d
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 83¢ $83 8d
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 58¢ $55 8d
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 80¢ $80 8d
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $51 8d
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $120 8d
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 83¢ $101 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $41 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $296.88 · official $296.88 (match) · 1025 history records