Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:04:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
05 0x0528…3595 world 5 markets active 2h ago coverage 8d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$17 (+2%) realized +$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate80%4W / 1L
Drawdown3%max
Avg bet$176per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 8d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 55% $0
other 28% +$1
world 17% +$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-2.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +19.6% +8.2% 100% 100% +8.7%
≤30d 5 +7.9% -2.4% 80% 40% -6.4%
≤90d 5 +7.9% -2.4% 80% 40% -6.4%
all 5 +7.9% -2.4% 80% 40% -6.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.4% 40% -6.4%
10% -11.7% 20% -15.3%
15% -20.2% 0% -23.5%
20% -28.0% 0% -31.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 94% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$1 · ×8.25 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×32.98 per $1 lost it wins $32.98
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses4 / 1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)5 / 5
History coverage8d
Avg bet$176
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown3%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 5 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture Sofiivka by June 30? Jun 23 $67 +$10 +14%
Ukraine election called by August 31, 2026? Jun 23 $81 +$20 +25%
Will any country join the Board of Peace by June 30? Jun 16 $244 +$1 +0%
Will Netanyahu publicly insult Trump by June 30? Jun 16 $243 +$1 +0%
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30? Jun 15 $245 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture Sofiivka by June 30? SELL Yes 8¢ $77 1h
Will Russia capture Sofiivka by June 30? BUY Yes 7¢ $34 3h
Will Russia capture Sofiivka by June 30? BUY Yes 7¢ $33 3h
Ukraine election called by August 31, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $51 3h
Ukraine election called by August 31, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $50 3h
Ukraine election called by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $81 6h
Will any country join the Board of Peace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $245 7d
Will any country join the Board of Peace by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $244 7d
Will Netanyahu publicly insult Trump by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $244 7d
Will Netanyahu publicly insult Trump by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $243 7d
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $244 7d
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $245 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 12 history records