Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T06:44:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
05 0x0528…ca3f crypto 217 markets active 7h ago coverage 75d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 74d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$3,402 (+2%) realized +$3,401 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate49%105W / 111L
Whale WR70%big bets
Drawdown39%max
Avg bet$998per market
Trades / day37.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$1,922now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 75d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 73% +$9,165
world 17% +$366
politics 9% −$35
other 0% +$33
weather 0% $0
sports 0% −$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)+2.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -42.7% -48.2% 30% 30% -9.5%
≤30d 19 -21.6% -29.1% 42% 16% -8.9%
≤90d 216 +13.8% +2.9% 49% 8% -7.2%
all 216 +13.8% +2.9% 49% 8% -7.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover37.9 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +2.9% 8% -7.2%
10% -6.9% 6% -16.1%
15% ← realistic here -15.9% 5% -24.2%
20% -24.2% 5% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
84% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 70% (≥$997) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +41% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
12.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$161 vs −$69 · ×2.35 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.28 per $1 lost it wins $2.28
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

75d coverage
Net worth$1,922
Realized+$3,401
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses105 / 111
Whale WR (big bets)70%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)216 / 217
History coverage75d ⚠
Avg bet$998
Trades / day37.9
Drawdown39%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 216 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $1,921 $1,922 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $84 +$16 +19%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $6 −$5 -89%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 22 $6,150 $0 +0%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on June 21? Jun 22 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 21? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 22 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C or below on June 21? Jun 21 $74 +$26 +34%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 22? Jun 21 $4 $0 -2%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $73 +$16 +22%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $10,945 −$2 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $325 +$4 +1%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $4,625 $0 +0%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? Jun 02 $74 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 31 $3,946 +$187 +5%
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele May 29 $5,500 $0 +0%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 31? May 29 $3,985 −$36 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 29 $15,922 +$176 +1%
Claude 4.8 released by May 31? May 28 $20 +$2 +10%
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? May 22 $203 −$2 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? May 22 $287 −$4 -1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on April 28? May 05 $117 −$16 -14%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 28? May 05 $1,306 +$26 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on April 28? May 05 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 28? May 05 $107 −$6 -5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on April 28? May 05 $351 −$149 -42%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $84,000 on April 28? May 05 $47 −$47 -100%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? May 05 $506 +$4 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 28? Apr 28 $2,386 +$35 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on April 28? Apr 28 $4,516 +$50 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on April 28? Apr 28 $301 −$120 -40%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 28? Apr 28 $302 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 28? Apr 28 $986 +$23 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on April 27? Apr 27 $192 +$9 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 27? Apr 27 $3,287 +$85 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on April 27? Apr 27 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 27? Apr 27 $6,838 +$135 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 27? Apr 27 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on April 27? Apr 27 $146 +$656 +450%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on April 27? Apr 27 $110 −$1 -1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on April 27? Apr 27 $102 −$102 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 27? Apr 27 $427 −$24 -6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 27? Apr 27 $313 −$10 -3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on April 27? Apr 27 $898 −$631 -70%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on April 27? Apr 27 $163 −$62 -38%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on April 27? Apr 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 27? Apr 27 $368 −$18 -5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 27? Apr 27 $325 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 24? Apr 27 $1,233 +$2,884 +234%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 26? Apr 26 $6,398 +$43 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $3 7h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $5 7h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $5 7h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $5 7h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $6 7h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $5 7h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $5 7h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $43 7h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $6 7h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $5 7h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $5 7h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $5 7h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $45 7h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $5 7h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $5 7h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $5 7h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $5 7h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $5 7h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $44 7h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $9 7h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $6 7h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $5 7h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $43 7h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $58 7h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $62 7h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $5 7h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $6 8h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $5 8h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $5 8h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $5 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,921.88 · official $1,921.88 (match) · 3500 history records