Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:21:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
05 0x052a…ffd9 crypto 1758 markets active 0h ago coverage 49d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 49d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,035 (+2%) realized +$1,035 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate75%1349W / 441L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day43.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 49d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$807
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 373 -8.4% -17.1% 73% 42% -16.0%
≤30d 482 -9.3% -17.9% 70% 40% -15.3%
≤90d 1790 -3.6% -12.8% 75% 47% -12.3%
all 1790 -3.6% -12.8% 75% 47% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover43.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.8% 47% -12.3%
10% ← realistic here -21.1% 31% -20.7%
15% -28.7% 20% -28.4%
20% -35.7% 12% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 0% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$23 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

49d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,035
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses1349 / 441
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1790 / 1758
History coverage49d ⚠
Avg bet$26
Trades / day43.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1790 Trades
no open positions (332 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 17 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 17 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 17 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 17 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 17 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 17 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 17 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 17 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 17 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$20 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 17 $18 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 17 $25 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$13 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$5 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$8 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$3 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$7 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$26 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$26 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $27 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 17 $25 +$1 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $26 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $26 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $26 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $26 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $27 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $25 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $26 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $26 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $26 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $26 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $26 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $0 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $25 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $26 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $25 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $26 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $26 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $25 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records