Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T10:32:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

05
0x052c…5a0e
world · 131 markets active 103d ago
0.0score
−$35,396 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$35,445 · open +$48
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$739
Realized−$35,445
Unrealized+$48
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses79 / 52
Whale WR (big bets)73%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)131 / 131
Avg bet$8,073
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%
Chart Positions 1 History 131 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13
7 days−$13
14 days−$13
30 days−$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? Yes 45¢ 100¢ $144 $322 +$178 (+124%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 63¢ 94¢ $100 $148 +$48 (+48%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting? Yes 69¢ 100¢ $100 $145 +$45 (+45%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31? Yes 81¢ 100¢ $100 $123 +$23 (+23%)
Solana Up or Down - August 22, 5PM ET Down 13¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? No 52¢ 0¢ $24,880 $0 −$24,880 (-100%)
Avatar 4 greenlit by March 31? Yes 58¢ 0¢ $1,116 $0 −$1,116 (-100%)
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by October 31? Yes 82¢ 0¢ $3,075 $0 −$3,075 (-100%)
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on December 17? Up 17¢ 0¢ $31 $0 −$31 (-100%)
Thailand x Cambodia ceasefire by December 31? No 64¢ 0¢ $1,144 $0 −$1,144 (-100%)
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026? No 55¢ 0¢ $3,759 $0 −$3,759 (-100%)
Will the U.S. collect more than $2t in revenue in 2025? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Bill Clinton confirmed pedophile by December 31? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026? No 55¢ 0¢ $22,634 $0 −$22,634 (-100%)
Will MrBeast raise $40M for clean water by August 31? No 9¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will "The Conjuring: Last Rites" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $67m? No 20¢ 0¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down on August 2? Up 9¢ 0¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
Will the Gävle Goat burn in 2025? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $105K in August? Yes 39¢ 0¢ $250 $0 −$250 (-100%)
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by March 31? Yes 53¢ 0¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship in 2025? No 72¢ 0¢ $300 $0 −$300 (-100%)
Will Eric Adams drop out by September 30? No 77¢ 0¢ $770 $0 −$770 (-100%)
US strikes Iran by March 8, 2026? No 72¢ 0¢ $7,540 $0 −$7,540 (-100%)
Will "The Conjuring: Last Rites" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $57m and $62m? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $48 $0 −$48 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down on August 2? Up 9¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the U.S. collect more than $2t in revenue in 2025? Jun 12 $13 −$13 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Feb 28 $68,462 −$62,190 -91%
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026? Feb 27 $22,635 −$22,634 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 27 $6,865 +$420 +6%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 26 $11,300 +$3,486 +31%
US strikes Iran by March 8, 2026? Feb 26 $7,540 −$7,540 -100%
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? Feb 26 $24,880 −$24,880 -100%
Will the U.S. collect less than $100b in revenue in 2025? Feb 22 $13,424 −$3,273 -24%
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? Feb 22 $11,390 +$2,524 +22%
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026? Feb 14 $15,242 +$1,532 +10%
Will the U.S. collect between $200b and $500b in revenue in 2025? Feb 12 $1,520 +$169 +11%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Feb 12 $2,239 +$357 +16%
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026? Feb 07 $3,759 −$3,759 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Feb 05 $13,250 +$392 +3%
US strike on Mexico by March 31? Feb 03 $14,600 +$1,459 +10%
US strikes Iran by February 1, 2026? Feb 02 $700 +$133 +19%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Feb 02 $4,395 +$821 +19%
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam by Jan Jan 30 $2,600 +$242 +9%
US government shutdown Saturday? Jan 25 $100 +$178 +178%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Jan 17 $100 +$23 +24%
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by March 31, 2026? Jan 17 $884 +$139 +16%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Jan 17 $22,800 +$108 +0%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026? Jan 17 $1,600 −$287 -18%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? Jan 15 $10,500 −$2,402 -23%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? Jan 11 $144 +$178 +124%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Jan 10 $100 +$45 +45%
Avatar 4 greenlit by March 31? Jan 06 $1,116 −$1,116 -100%
Will Elon Musk change his X profile picture by December 31? Jan 01 $100 +$110 +110%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model for coding at the end of 2025? Jan 01 $19,069 +$3,518 +18%
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31? Jan 01 $58,122 +$15,936 +27%
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by March Dec 29 $200 −$200 -100%
Will the Gävle Goat burn in 2025? Dec 29 $20 −$20 -100%
Thailand x Cambodia ceasefire by December 31? Dec 26 $1,144 −$1,144 -100%
Bill Clinton confirmed pedophile by December 31? Dec 25 $30 −$30 -100%
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 90 Dec 23 $3,271 +$1,423 +44%
Will Trump release more Epstein files by December 22? Dec 22 $100 +$1 +1%
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19? Dec 22 $1,820 +$288 +16%
Andrew Tate vs. Chase Demoor Dec 20 $1,301 −$1 -0%
Will Trump admin release any Epstein files on December 19? Dec 20 $12,950 +$258 +2%
U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship in 2025? Dec 19 $300 −$300 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Dec 19 $34,818 +$4,662 +13%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on December 17? Dec 17 $31 −$31 -100%
Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 18? Dec 17 $100 −$83 -83%
Will Artificial Intelligence be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Dec 11 $2,000 +$1,389 +70%
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model by December 13? Dec 09 $200 −$96 -48%
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? Nov 27 $2,790 −$1,782 -64%
Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 18 2025? Nov 18 $148,314 +$18,649 +13%
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 22? Nov 18 $72,703 +$16,971 +23%
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 30? Nov 18 $44,108 +$7,677 +17%
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 15? Nov 14 $60,155 +$1,538 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 41% −$112,537
other 35% +$40,113
tech 20% +$36,828
politics 2% +$875
crypto 1% −$2,544
economics 1% +$594
culture 0% +$1,153
sports 0% −$201
finance 0% +$335
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? SELL No 2¢ $1,802 103d
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026? BUY No 50¢ $3,639 104d
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? SELL No 83¢ $3,637 104d
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026? BUY No 49¢ $3,213 104d
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026? BUY No 49¢ $352 104d
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026? BUY No 48¢ $82 104d
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? SELL No 80¢ $3,649 104d
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026? BUY No 50¢ $4,558 104d
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026? BUY No 63¢ $3,545 105d
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026? BUY No 61¢ $7,246 105d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? SELL No 98¢ $7,246 105d
US strikes Iran by March 8, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $3,140 105d
US strikes Iran by March 8, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $4,400 105d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? SELL No 98¢ $7,540 105d
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? BUY No 46¢ $14,844 105d
Will the U.S. collect less than $100b in revenue in 2025? SELL Yes 95¢ $930 110d
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? BUY No 63¢ $7,036 114d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? BUY No 75¢ $7,000 114d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? BUY No 75¢ $4 117d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? BUY No 75¢ $3 117d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? BUY No 75¢ $14 117d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? BUY No 75¢ $2,979 117d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? BUY No 75¢ $900 117d
Will the U.S. collect between $200b and $500b in revenue in 2025? SELL Yes 9¢ $9 120d
Will the U.S. collect between $100b and $200b in revenue in 2025? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 120d
Will the U.S. collect between $500b and $1t in revenue in 2025? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 120d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? SELL No 95¢ $2,117 120d
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $1,000 120d
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $1,000 120d
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $38 120d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-21.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 131 -13.6% -21.9% 60% 43% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.9% 43% -12.5%
10% ← realistic here -29.3% 24% -20.8%
15% -36.2% 16% -28.5%
20% -42.4% 8% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $738.97 · official $738.97 (match) · 2340 history records