Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T15:07:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
05 0x052d…05fd crypto 1077 markets active 0h ago coverage 85d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$147 (+0%) realized +$147 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate92%992W / 85L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$106per market
Trades / day13.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$101now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$22
7 days−$285
14 days−$1,022
30 days−$1,725
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$429
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 98 -1.0% -10.4% 91% 7% -12.1%
≤30d 442 -0.7% -10.2% 89% 13% -12.9%
≤90d 1077 +1.4% -8.2% 92% 14% -9.9%
all 1077 +1.4% -8.2% 92% 14% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.2% 14% -9.9%
10% -17.0% 8% -18.5%
15% -25.0% 4% -26.4%
20% -32.4% 3% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
84% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$91 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

85d coverage
Net worth$101
Realized+$147
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses992 / 85
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1077 / 1077
History coverage85d
Avg bet$106
Trades / day13.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1077 Trades
no open positions (21 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 19 $100 +$1 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 19 $100 +$1 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 19 $100 +$2 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 19 $100 +$1 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 19 $100 +$1 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 19 $100 +$1 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 19 $100 +$1 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 19 $100 +$1 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 18 $100 +$1 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 18 $100 +$2 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 18 $100 +$2 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 18 $100 +$1 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 18 $100 +$1 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 18 $201 −$92 -46%
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 18 $100 +$5 +5%
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 18 $100 +$1 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 18 $100 +$1 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 18 $10 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 18 $100 +$1 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 18 $100 +$2 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 18 $100 +$1 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 18 $100 +$1 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 18 $100 +$1 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 18 $100 +$1 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 18 $100 +$1 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 17 $100 +$1 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 17 $100 +$6 +6%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 17 $100 +$1 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $101 +$23 +23%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $101 +$7 +7%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $100 +$1 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $100 +$1 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $100 +$2 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 17 $100 +$1 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 17 $100 +$1 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $101 +$14 +14%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $100 +$2 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $100 +$7 +7%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $100 +$4 +4%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $100 +$1 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $100 +$3 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $100 +$1 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 16 $100 +$1 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 16 $94 +$1 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 16 $100 +$1 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 16 $100 +$1 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $100 +$1 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $100 −$100 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $100 +$1 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $100 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 22m
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $100 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 3h
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 4h
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 6h
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 11h
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 12h
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 15h
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $100 16h
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $100 19h
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 19h
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 22h
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $101 23h
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $100 23h
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $100 26h
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 28h
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 30h
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 31h
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 32h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $100 35h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 36h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 36h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 37h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 38h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 38h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 41h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $100 42h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 42h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $101 43h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $101.01 · official $101.01 (match) · 2185 history records