Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T11:17:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
05 0x0537…e9dc sports 26 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$3,801 (+35%) realized +$3,608 · open +$193
Gross ROI / mkt +22% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate76%16W / 5L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$420per market
Trades / day23.3pace
Fees−$51est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$1,593now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% +$1,857
sports 46% +$2,072
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +21.5% +10.0% 76% 67% +26.0%
≤30d 21 +21.5% +10.0% 76% 67% +26.0%
≤90d 21 +21.5% +10.0% 76% 67% +26.0%
all 21 +21.5% +10.0% 76% 67% +26.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +10.0% 67% +26.0%
10% ← realistic here -0.6% 52% +14.0%
15% -10.2% 52% +2.9%
20% -19.0% 33% -7.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +39% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +22% · $-wt +39% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$809) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +14% → late +28% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$306 vs −$233 · ×1.32 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×4.21 per $1 lost it wins $4.21
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$1,593
Realized+$3,608
Unrealized+$193
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses16 / 5
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$51
Open positions5
Markets (closed)21 / 26
History coverage2d
Avg bet$420
Trades / day23.3
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 56¢ 56¢ $700 $706 +$6 (+1%)
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys Jessica Pegula 51¢ 100¢ $200 $395 +$195 (+97%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $200 $195 −$5 (-2%)
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Australia 65¢ 64¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brescia: Anastasiia Sobolieva vs Ane Mintegi Del Olmo Jun 19 $203 +$207 +102%
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert Jun 19 $101 −$4 -4%
ITF Zhengzhou: Evialina Laskevich vs Rinko Matsuda Jun 19 $809 +$335 +41%
ITF Taipei: Hiromi Abe vs Kayo Nishimura Jun 19 $601 +$120 +20%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming (BO3) - The International South A Jun 19 $101 −$100 -99%
ITF Sapporo: Ying Zhang vs Ayumi Miyamoto Jun 19 $202 +$115 +57%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $1,525 +$1,797 +118%
Asuncion 2: Juan Estevez vs Gonzalo Villanueva Jun 18 $951 +$458 +48%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1,416 +$807 +57%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1,014 −$887 -88%
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Chun-Hsin Tseng Jun 18 $910 +$509 +56%
Nottingham 2: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Remy Bertola Jun 18 $460 +$80 +17%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn Jun 18 $102 +$142 +140%
Figueira Da Foz (Doubles): Hruncakova/Kuzmova vs Bhosale/Cascino Jun 18 $3 $0 +1%
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 18 $202 +$117 +58%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $390 +$140 +36%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $102 −$72 -70%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $122 +$51 +42%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$21 +21%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $100 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys BUY Jessica Pegula 48¢ $102 1h
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert SELL Ugo Humbert 56¢ $97 1h
Brescia: Anastasiia Sobolieva vs Ane Mintegi Del Olmo BUY Anastasiia Sobolieva 53¢ $101 2h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys BUY Jessica Pegula 53¢ $101 2h
Brescia: Anastasiia Sobolieva vs Ane Mintegi Del Olmo BUY Anastasiia Sobolieva 45¢ $102 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $202 2h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $202 2h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $203 4h
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Australia 65¢ $101 4h
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert BUY Ugo Humbert 57¢ $101 5h
ITF Zhengzhou: Evialina Laskevich vs Rinko Matsuda BUY Evialina Laskevich 77¢ $1 6h
ITF Zhengzhou: Evialina Laskevich vs Rinko Matsuda BUY Evialina Laskevich 76¢ $1 6h
ITF Zhengzhou: Evialina Laskevich vs Rinko Matsuda BUY Evialina Laskevich 77¢ $101 6h
ITF Zhengzhou: Evialina Laskevich vs Rinko Matsuda BUY Evialina Laskevich 76¢ $302 6h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $101 6h
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming (BO3) - The International South A BUY Team Nemesis 78¢ $101 6h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $405 7h
ITF Taipei: Hiromi Abe vs Kayo Nishimura BUY Hiromi Abe 83¢ $601 9h
ITF Zhengzhou: Evialina Laskevich vs Rinko Matsuda BUY Evialina Laskevich 65¢ $404 9h
ITF Sapporo: Ying Zhang vs Ayumi Miyamoto BUY Ayumi Miyamoto 63¢ $202 9h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 36¢ $204 9h
Asuncion 2: Juan Estevez vs Gonzalo Villanueva BUY Juan Estevez 73¢ $293 13h
Asuncion 2: Juan Estevez vs Gonzalo Villanueva BUY Juan Estevez 66¢ $606 13h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $406 13h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $406 13h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $508 13h
Asuncion 2: Juan Estevez vs Gonzalo Villanueva BUY Juan Estevez 50¢ $51 14h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $1,416 17h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes $127 17h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 72¢ $101 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,593.11 · official $1,593.24 (match) · 72 history records