Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:22:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
05 0x0537…4804 other 40 markets active 1h ago coverage 304d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate26%10W / 29L
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 28% $0
world 24% +$2
other 21% $0
crypto 12% $0
tech 7% $0
economics 6% $0
culture 2% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.7% -8.9% 33% 0% -8.5%
≤30d 6 +0.7% -8.9% 33% 0% -8.5%
≤90d 6 +0.7% -8.9% 33% 0% -8.5%
all 39 +0.1% -9.4% 26% 0% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.3%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.0%
15% -26.0% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 89% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×2.15 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.38 per $1 lost it wins $5.38
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

304d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses10 / 29
Open positions1
Markets (closed)39 / 40
History coverage304d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No 47¢ 47¢ $38 $38 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 15 $8 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $41 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $32 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $82 +$1 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 12 $2 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 11 $40 +$1 +3%
Will Elon tweet 300–324 times August 15–August 22? Aug 24 $5 $0 +1%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 23 $6 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Aug 23 $41 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 23 $37 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the top AI model on August 31? Aug 23 $8 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 23 $8 $0 +0%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% in 2025? Aug 23 $8 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $3300 in August? Aug 23 $8 $0 +0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Aug 22 $8 $0 -1%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Aug 22 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80K in August? Aug 22 $37 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Aug 22 $22 $0 -2%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 22 $18 $0 +0%
Will OpenAi have the top AI model on August 31? Aug 21 $41 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 21 $46 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 21 $5 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 21 $5 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 20 $5 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Aug 20 $5 $0 +0%
Will Taylor Fritz win the 2025 US Open? Aug 20 $5 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 19 $5 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Aug 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will Zuriel Oduwole win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $3000 in August? Aug 18 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in August? Aug 18 $9 $0 +0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 18 $38 $0 +0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 18 $41 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 18 $5 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 17 $46 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 17 $15 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 650 or more times August 15–August 22? Aug 17 $34 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 17 $12 $0 +0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 17 $46 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $38 1h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $8 44h
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $8 45h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $41 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $41 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $11 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $21 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $32 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $42 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $42 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $41 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $40 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 65¢ $41 6d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 63¢ $40 6d
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? SELL No 92¢ $5 297d
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? SELL No 99¢ $41 297d
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 92¢ $5 297d
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 99¢ $41 298d
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? SELL No 91¢ $37 298d
Will xAI have the top AI model on August 31? SELL No 98¢ $8 298d
Will xAI have the top AI model on August 31? BUY No 98¢ $8 298d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $8 298d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $8 298d
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% in 2025? SELL No 96¢ $8 298d
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% in 2025? BUY No 96¢ $8 298d
Will Ethereum dip to $3300 in August? SELL No 99¢ $8 298d
Will Ethereum dip to $3300 in August? BUY No 99¢ $8 298d
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? SELL No 96¢ $8 298d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.07 · official $38.07 (match) · 102 history records