Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T15:41:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

05
0x0538…6cca
world · 37 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$3 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$3 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$36
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses14 / 22
Open positions1
Markets (closed)36 / 37
History coverage468d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%
Chart Positions 1 History 36 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? No 97¢ 98¢ $36 $36 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $19 −$2 -9%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $7 $0 -1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $42 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 11 $110 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $43 −$1 -2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 10 $38 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $39 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 09 $35 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 07 $35 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $3 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $35 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 05 $60 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $35 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $35 $0 +1%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 03 $1 $0 -7%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Jul 23 $2 $0 -6%
Will Meta buy TikTok? Jun 26 $15 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $120k in April? Apr 17 $17 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 125–149 times April 11–18? Apr 16 $16 +$1 +4%
Will Sławomir Mentzen be the next President of Poland? Apr 15 $16 $0 +1%
Will Shane Lowry win The 2025 Masters? Apr 13 $16 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Steve Bannon in his first 100 days? Apr 12 $16 $0 +0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? Apr 11 $16 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50k in April? Apr 09 $16 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool finish in 2nd place for the 2024-25 EPL season? Apr 08 $16 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Daniel Penny in his first 100 days? Apr 07 $16 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 National League Championshi Apr 05 $16 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110k in April? Apr 04 $16 $0 -3%
Will xAI have the top AI model on March 31? Apr 02 $16 $0 +2%
PartyDAO airdrop in Q1 2025? Mar 28 $16 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 375-399 times March 21-28? Mar 28 $16 $0 +2%
Trump meets with Zelenskyy in March? Mar 24 $16 $0 -2%
Playboi Carti's "MUSIC" debuts at #1 on Billboard 200? Mar 23 $18 −$2 -9%
Trump cryptocurrency executive order this week? Mar 22 $17 $0 +1%
Will the SPD win 15-20% of the vote in the German election? Mar 15 $17 $0 +1%
Will Arsenal win on 2025-03-04? Mar 03 $17 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 60% −$2
other 18% +$1
politics 9% $0
crypto 7% $0
tech 3% $0
culture 2% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $36 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 21¢ $2 13h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 21¢ $15 13h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 23¢ $19 14h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 72¢ $4 21h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 72¢ $4 21h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 73¢ $7 21h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 38h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 38h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 40h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 40h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $38 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $38 2d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $35 3d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $34 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 92¢ $34 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 94¢ $35 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL Yes 63¢ $38 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY Yes 63¢ $38 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 11¢ $8 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 11¢ $8 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 46¢ $0 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 46¢ $38 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 46¢ $39 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 75¢ $35 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 75¢ $32 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 75¢ $4 5d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $39 5d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $39 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $34 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -1.3% -10.7% 11% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 15 -1.2% -10.6% 20% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 15 -1.2% -10.6% 20% 0% -9.9%
all 36 -0.7% -10.2% 39% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.8% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.19 · official $36.19 (match) · 112 history records