Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T03:37:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
05 0x0539…1acc other 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$47 (+2%) realized +$27 · open +$20
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate75%6W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$200per market
Trades / day7.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit8%portable
Net worth$1,391now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 96% +$86
sports 4% +$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-16.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -7.7% -16.4% 75% 50% -4.7%
≤30d 8 -7.7% -16.4% 75% 50% -4.7%
≤90d 8 -7.7% -16.4% 75% 50% -4.7%
all 8 -7.7% -16.4% 75% 50% -4.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.4% 50% -4.7%
10% -24.4% 25% -13.9%
15% -31.7% 25% -22.2%
20% -38.4% 0% -29.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 52% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$75 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.58 per $1 lost it wins $1.58
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$1,391
Realized+$27
Unrealized+$20
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses6 / 2
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)8 / 13
History coverage2d
Avg bet$200
Trades / day7.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit8%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 55¢ 57¢ $400 $418 +$18 (+5%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Yes 82¢ 82¢ $400 $402 +$2 (+1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 51¢ 52¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Yes 81¢ 80¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $401 +$21 +5%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $501 +$48 +10%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $194 +$75 +39%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $51 −$49 -96%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $101 +$21 +21%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $201 +$24 +12%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $98 +$47 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 81¢ $50 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $51 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $51 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 95¢ $401 2h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $401 18h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 85¢ $100 24h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 25h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 47¢ $51 25h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 82¢ $101 27h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 37h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 61¢ $93 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $100 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 55¢ $405 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 82¢ $402 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $98 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $100 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $100 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,391.37 · official $1,391.37 (match) · 23 history records