Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T22:09:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
05 0x0539…9fe8 other 1238 markets active 0h ago coverage 103d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$20 (+0%) realized +$20 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate100%1233W / 5L
Drawdown25%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day12.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$2
14 days+$3
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% +$16
sports 47% +$2
crypto 1% $0
politics 0% $0
tech 0% $0
weather 0% $0
world 0% $0
culture 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 248 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 492 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 1053 +1.8% -7.9% 100% 1% -9.4%
all 1238 +1.6% -8.1% 100% 1% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.1% 1% -9.3%
10% -16.9% 0% -18.0%
15% -24.9% 0% -25.9%
20% -32.3% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.45 per $1 lost it wins $3.45
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

103d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses1233 / 5
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1238 / 1238
History coverage103d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day12.0
Drawdown25%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1238 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Nicolas Jackson: 1+ goals + assists Jun 26 $5 $0 +0%
Ismaïla Sarr: 4+ shots on target Jun 26 $5 $0 +0%
Habib Diarra: 3+ goals + assists Jun 26 $5 $0 +0%
Rayan Cherki: 1+ shots on target Jun 26 $5 $0 +0%
Erling Haaland: 4+ shots on target Jun 26 $5 $0 +0%
Jean-Philippe Mateta: 1+ goals Jun 26 $5 $0 +0%
Will Fubo: Watch Live TV & Sports be #1 Free App in the US Apple App S Jun 26 $5 $0 +0%
Tim Weah: 1+ shots Jun 26 $5 $0 +0%
Julio César Enciso: 2+ shots on target Jun 26 $5 $0 +0%
Gio Reyna: 1+ assists Jun 26 $5 $0 +1%
Brenden Aaronson: 1+ assists Jun 26 $5 $0 +0%
Tim Weah: 5+ shots Jun 26 $5 $0 +0%
Gustavo Caballero: 4+ goals + assists Jun 26 $5 $0 +0%
Antonio Sanabria: 3+ goals Jun 26 $4 $0 +0%
Jan Paul van Hecke: 2+ shots Jun 26 $5 $0 +0%
Ritsu Dōan: 1+ shots Jun 26 $5 $0 +0%
Memphis Depay: 3+ shots Jun 26 $5 $0 +0%
Cody Gakpo: 3+ shots on target Jun 26 $5 $0 +0%
Alexander Isak: 4+ goals + assists Jun 26 $5 $0 +0%
Ayase Ueda: 4+ goals + assists Jun 26 $5 $0 +0%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: SaD Esports (-3.5) vs Nightblood Gaming (+3.5) Jun 25 $5 $0 +0%
Manuel Neuer: 4+ saves Jun 25 $5 $0 +0%
Jordy Caicedo: 3+ shots on target Jun 25 $5 $0 +0%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $5 $0 +0%
Franck Kessié: 3+ goals + assists Jun 25 $5 $0 +0%
Simon Adingra: 3+ goals Jun 25 $5 $0 +0%
Jamie Leweling: 2+ shots on target Jun 25 $5 $0 +0%
Elye Wahi: 3+ goals Jun 25 $5 $0 +0%
Nadiem Amiri: 2+ goals Jun 25 $5 $0 +0%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 Jun 25 $5 $0 +0%
RCA Zemamra vs. OC Safi: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 25 $5 $0 +0%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Keyd (-6.5) vs UNO MILLE (+6.5) Jun 25 $5 $0 +0%
Map 1: Odd/Even Total Kills? Jun 25 $5 $0 +0%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: CGN Esports (-2.5) vs Barça eSports (+2.5) Jun 25 $5 $0 +0%
Muchova vs. Tauson: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 25 $5 $0 +0%
Bolkvadze vs. Vandromme: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 25 $5 $0 +0%
Draper vs. Diallo: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 25 $5 $0 +0%
Kjaer vs. Virtanen: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 25 $4 $0 +0%
Meza/Tobon vs. Prashanth/Ramanathan: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $5 $0 +0%
Set Handicap: Prashanth/Ramanathan (-1.5) vs Meza/Tobon (+1.5) Jun 25 $5 $0 +0%
Liu vs. Pridankina: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 25 $5 $0 +0%
Set Handicap: Wessels (-1.5) vs Bozemoj (+1.5) Jun 25 $5 $0 +0%
Set Handicap: Jong (-1.5) vs Balciunas (+1.5) Jun 25 $5 $0 +0%
Ruiz vs. Boyer: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 25 $5 $0 +0%
Machado vs. Dlimi: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5 Jun 25 $5 $0 +0%
Set 1 Winner: Liu vs Pridankina Jun 25 $5 $0 +0%
Paardekooper vs. Jager: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 25 $5 $0 +0%
Adam Hložek: 1+ shots on target Jun 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will Netherlands be the worst-placed European nation in the 2026 FIFA Jun 25 $5 $0 +0%
Guillermo Martínez: 3+ shots Jun 25 $5 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Nicolas Jackson: 1+ goals + assists BUY No 100¢ $5 27m
Ismaïla Sarr: 4+ shots on target BUY No 100¢ $5 31m
Habib Diarra: 3+ goals + assists BUY No 100¢ $5 37m
Rayan Cherki: 1+ shots on target BUY No 100¢ $5 48m
Erling Haaland: 4+ shots on target BUY No 100¢ $5 1h
Jean-Philippe Mateta: 1+ goals BUY No 100¢ $5 1h
Will Fubo: Watch Live TV & Sports be #1 Free App in the US Apple App S BUY No 100¢ $5 6h
Tim Weah: 1+ shots BUY No 100¢ $5 15h
Julio César Enciso: 2+ shots on target BUY No 100¢ $5 16h
Brenden Aaronson: 1+ assists BUY No 100¢ $5 17h
Gio Reyna: 1+ assists BUY No 99¢ $5 17h
Tim Weah: 5+ shots BUY No 100¢ $5 17h
Gustavo Caballero: 4+ goals + assists BUY No 100¢ $5 18h
Antonio Sanabria: 3+ goals BUY No 100¢ $4 18h
Jan Paul van Hecke: 2+ shots BUY Yes 100¢ $5 18h
Ritsu Dōan: 1+ shots BUY Yes 100¢ $5 20h
Memphis Depay: 3+ shots BUY No 100¢ $5 20h
Cody Gakpo: 3+ shots on target BUY No 100¢ $5 20h
Alexander Isak: 4+ goals + assists BUY No 100¢ $5 21h
Ayase Ueda: 4+ goals + assists BUY No 100¢ $5 21h
Manuel Neuer: 4+ saves BUY No 100¢ $5 23h
Jordy Caicedo: 3+ shots on target BUY No 100¢ $5 23h
Simon Adingra: 3+ goals BUY No 100¢ $5 23h
Franck Kessié: 3+ goals + assists BUY No 100¢ $5 23h
Jamie Leweling: 2+ shots on target BUY No 100¢ $5 24h
Elye Wahi: 3+ goals BUY No 100¢ $5 24h
Nadiem Amiri: 2+ goals BUY No 100¢ $5 24h
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: SaD Esports (-3.5) vs Nightblood Gaming (+3.5) BUY Nightblood Gaming 100¢ $5 25h
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 BUY Under 100¢ $5 25h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 100¢ $5 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2732 history records