Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:06:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
05 0x0539…70f9 other 413 markets active 0h ago coverage 622d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$11,680 (+9%) realized +$6,793 · open +$4,887
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate30%106W / 247L
Whale WR61%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$309per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Fees−$292est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$36,745now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$53
7 days+$569
14 days+$1,225
30 days+$4,196
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 37% +$7,067
politics 34% +$863
sports 19% +$2,538
economics 4% −$371
finance 3% −$486
culture 2% +$407
world 1% −$62
tech 0% −$64
crypto 0% +$669
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-21.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +65.8% +50.1% 33% 33% +55.7%
≤30d 51 +41.8% +28.3% 35% 35% +71.9%
≤90d 76 +31.2% +18.7% 34% 32% -6.3%
all 353 -13.1% -21.3% 30% 27% -3.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.3% 27% -3.1%
10% -28.9% 23% -12.4%
15% -35.7% 21% -20.9%
20% -42.0% 20% -28.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 61% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -32% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$275 vs −$96 · ×2.87 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.24 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

622d coverage
Net worth$36,745
Realized+$6,793
Unrealized+$4,887
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses106 / 247
Whale WR (big bets)61%
Est. fees paid−$292
Open positions39
Markets (closed)353 / 413
History coverage622d
Avg bet$309
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 39 History 353 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 20¢ $5,485 $7,503 +$2,017 (+37%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $5,811 $5,368 −$443 (-8%)
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes $1,381 $4,453 +$3,072 (+222%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 15¢ $1,549 $3,013 +$1,464 (+95%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 13¢ $2,391 $2,510 +$119 (+5%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 18¢ 15¢ $2,570 $2,178 −$392 (-15%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ $1,572 $2,122 +$550 (+35%)
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes $2,172 $1,904 −$268 (-12%)
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes $2,388 $1,885 −$503 (-21%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,579 $1,570 −$10 (-1%)
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes $1,739 $1,428 −$311 (-18%)
Will the Los Angeles Rams win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 16¢ $275 $566 +$292 (+106%)
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 51 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? Yes 15¢ 18¢ $327 $381 +$54 (+17%)
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes $272 $196 −$76 (-28%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $450 $182 −$269 (-60%)
Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? Yes 18¢ 28¢ $99 $154 +$55 (+56%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $267 $122 −$145 (-54%)
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 20¢ $138 $116 −$22 (-16%)
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes $131 $106 −$25 (-19%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $110 $105 −$5 (-5%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 66¢ 99¢ $70 $105 +$35 (+50%)
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 IR Iran? Yes 19¢ 15¢ $133 $103 −$30 (-22%)
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? Yes 11¢ $110 $97 −$13 (-12%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 4.5 Over 16¢ 12¢ $105 $81 −$24 (-23%)
Will the Atlanta Falcons win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes $74 $79 +$5 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 196 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -97%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $17 −$17 -97%
Exact Score: Tunisia 2 - 3 Japan? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? Jun 21 $45 −$44 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $92 −$90 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $29 +$158 +550%
Exact Score: Scotland 2 - 0 Morocco? Jun 19 $15 −$15 -97%
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) Jun 19 $22 −$21 -98%
Spread: Morocco (-3.5) Jun 19 $12 −$12 -97%
Spread: Australia (-1.5) Jun 19 $36 −$35 -97%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $72 −$70 -98%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Swit Jun 19 $62 +$302 +491%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $66 +$89 +134%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $54 +$39 +73%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 3 Colombia? Jun 17 $12 −$12 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A Jun 17 $163 +$253 +155%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $13 +$131 +982%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $76 −$75 -98%
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-1 be the exact series outcome? Jun 14 $108 +$417 +388%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $209 +$361 +172%
Spread: Spurs (-22.5) Jun 13 $26 −$25 -97%
Spread: Knicks (-9.5) Jun 12 $62 −$60 -98%
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-3 be the exact series outcome? Jun 12 $122 −$120 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $72 −$70 -98%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 12 $56 +$82 +146%
Spread: Knicks (-8.5) Jun 11 $47 −$46 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $203 +$228 +112%
Spread: Knicks (-5.5) Jun 10 $41 −$40 -98%
Spread: Knicks (-9.5) Jun 10 $72 −$70 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-10.5) Jun 07 $31 −$30 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-13.5) Jun 06 $90 −$88 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $127 +$240 +188%
Spread: Spurs (-24.5) Jun 05 $15 −$15 -97%
Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $46 −$45 -98%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $221 −$20 -9%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 05 $56 +$173 +307%
Spread: Spurs (-17.5) Jun 02 $21 −$20 -98%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 02 $649 +$959 +148%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 02 $440 +$1,776 +404%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) May 31 $82 +$204 +250%
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) May 30 $87 −$85 -98%
Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2026 Women’s French Open? May 30 $121 −$118 -98%
Will Casper Ruud win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 30 $92 −$90 -98%
Spread: Thunder (-9.5) May 28 $92 −$90 -98%
Will Elena Rybakina win the 2026 Women’s French Open? May 26 $67 −$67 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) May 26 $82 −$82 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-12.5) May 26 $46 +$136 +294%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 25 $214 −$210 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-8.5) May 25 $143 +$287 +201%
Spread: Knicks (-9.5) May 24 $72 +$247 +344%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $69 2m
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 0 IR Iran? BUY Yes 19¢ $80 4m
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 IR Iran? BUY Yes 27¢ $85 6m
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $72 1h
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 IR Iran? BUY Yes 11¢ $87 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 16¢ $108 1h
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 IR Iran? BUY Yes 13¢ $51 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $113 1h
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 2 IR Iran? BUY Yes $24 2h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes $2 2h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 2 IR Iran? BUY Yes $31 3h
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 2 IR Iran? BUY Yes $36 3h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Saudi Arabia $17 3h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Urug BUY $36 3h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) AND Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY $15 9h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Saudi Ara BUY $15 9h
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes $22 18h
Spread: Uruguay (-3.5) BUY Uruguay $43 18h
Exact Score: Tunisia 2 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes $10 18h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 15¢ $45 18h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) AND Spread: Belgium (-1.5) AND Spread: Japan (-2. BUY $87 18h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 13¢ $26 25h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) AND Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) AND Will Germany win o BUY 11¢ $154 26h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) AND Spread: Germany (-2.5) AND Spread: Netherland BUY $41 26h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 14¢ $67 26h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 15¢ $29 44h
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) AND Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) AND Will Germany win BUY $31 44h
Exact Score: Scotland 2 - 0 Morocco? BUY Yes $15 46h
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) BUY Morocco 13¢ $22 46h
Spread: Morocco (-3.5) BUY Morocco $12 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36,744.75 · official $36,842.77 (match) · 2782 history records