Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T17:12:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
05 0x053a…1038 crypto 79 markets active 0h ago coverage 148d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate38%29W / 48L
Drawdown40%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$73
7 days+$73
14 days+$67
30 days+$67
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 81% +$93
world 9% +$4
other 7% −$25
politics 1% −$5
tech 1% −$5
sports 0% +$1
economics 0% −$1
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-34.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +8.8% -1.5% 75% 68% +5.0%
≤30d 32 -1.5% -10.9% 69% 59% +3.6%
≤90d 32 -1.5% -10.9% 69% 59% +3.6%
all 77 -27.7% -34.6% 38% 32% +0.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.6% 32% +0.4%
10% -40.9% 26% -9.2%
15% -46.6% 19% -18.0%
20% -51.8% 14% -26.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt +11% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -51% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$3 · ×2.44 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.48 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

148d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses29 / 48
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)77 / 79
History coverage148d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 77 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 20 $55 +$4 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 20 $31 +$13 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 20 $20 +$6 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 20 $21 +$12 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 20 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 20 $30 +$5 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 20 $40 +$4 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 20 $21 +$27 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 20 $26 +$10 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 20 $26 +$17 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 20 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 20 $16 +$6 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 20 $28 +$8 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 20 $10 +$13 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 20 $11 +$7 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 20 $10 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 20 $9 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 19 $8 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 19 $4 +$4 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 19 $3 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 19 $3 $0 +12%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $1 +$1 +91%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 15 $8 +$1 +13%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -99%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +6%
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Mar 13 $1 $0 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Mar 13 $2 +$1 +46%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Mar 13 $1 $0 -18%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Mar 13 $2 −$2 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Mar 13 $1 $0 +3%
Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31? Mar 13 $5 $0 -8%
Will Trump declare war on Iran by March 31, 2026? Mar 13 $3 −$2 -72%
Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by March 31? Mar 13 $2 −$2 -91%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by March 31, 2026? Mar 10 $1 −$1 -75%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in March? Mar 09 $2 −$1 -27%
Will Hillary say "Island" during her Epstein testimony? Mar 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 6? Mar 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 3? Mar 04 $5 +$10 +194%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 1, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Mar 02 $2 −$1 -49%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 3? Mar 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Hassan Khomeini be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the US strike Iran next? Feb 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will GTA 6 cost $100+? Feb 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $55 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $31 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $20 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $10 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $20 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $44 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $13 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $10 2h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 2h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $8 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $4 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.91 · official $1.91 (match) · 165 history records