Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T09:21:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
05 0x053b…2b6e crypto 7 markets active 251d ago coverage 9d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$344 (-10%) realized −$344 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate14%1W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$471per market
Trades / day18.2pace
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 9d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 77% $0
crypto 23% −$344
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-35.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 7 -28.6% -35.4% 14% 14% -19.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.4% 14% -19.0%
10% -41.6% 14% -26.7%
15% -47.2% 14% -33.8%
20% -52.4% 14% -40.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
12.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$202 vs −$182 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$344
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses1 / 6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)7 / 7
History coverage9d
Avg bet$471
Trades / day18.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 7 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Chef Phillip win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship? Oct 21 $601 $0 +0%
Will Phil Laak win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship? Oct 21 $233 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Oct 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Oct 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 12, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Oct 13 $202 +$202 +100%
Will T.J. Lavin win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship? Oct 12 $1,715 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Oct 12 $536 −$536 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Chef Phillip win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship? SELL Yes 0¢ $40 250d
Will Phil Laak win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship? SELL Yes 0¢ $13 250d
Will Chef Phillip win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship? BUY Yes 0¢ $40 250d
Will Chef Phillip win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship? SELL Yes 0¢ $40 250d
Will Chef Phillip win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship? BUY Yes 0¢ $40 250d
Will Chef Phillip win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship? SELL Yes 0¢ $40 250d
Will Chef Phillip win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship? BUY Yes 0¢ $40 250d
Will Chef Phillip win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship? SELL Yes 0¢ $40 250d
Will Chef Phillip win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship? BUY Yes 0¢ $40 250d
Will Chef Phillip win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship? SELL Yes 0¢ $40 250d
Will Chef Phillip win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship? BUY Yes 0¢ $40 250d
Will Chef Phillip win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship? SELL Yes 0¢ $40 250d
Will Chef Phillip win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship? BUY Yes 0¢ $40 250d
Will Chef Phillip win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship? SELL Yes 0¢ $40 250d
Will Chef Phillip win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship? BUY Yes 0¢ $40 250d
Will Chef Phillip win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship? SELL Yes 0¢ $40 250d
Will Chef Phillip win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship? BUY Yes 0¢ $40 250d
Will Chef Phillip win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship? SELL Yes 0¢ $40 250d
Will Chef Phillip win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship? BUY Yes 0¢ $40 250d
Will Chef Phillip win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship? SELL Yes 0¢ $40 250d
Will Chef Phillip win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship? BUY Yes 0¢ $40 250d
Will Chef Phillip win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship? SELL Yes 0¢ $40 250d
Will Chef Phillip win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship? BUY Yes 0¢ $40 250d
Will Chef Phillip win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship? SELL Yes 0¢ $40 250d
Will Chef Phillip win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship? BUY Yes 0¢ $40 250d
Will Chef Phillip win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship? SELL Yes 0¢ $40 250d
Will Chef Phillip win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship? BUY Yes 0¢ $40 250d
Will Chef Phillip win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship? SELL Yes 0¢ $40 250d
Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 250d
Will Chef Phillip win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship? BUY Yes 0¢ $40 250d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 172 history records