Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:20:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
05 0x053e…1fa1 world 7 markets active 6d ago coverage 64d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-6%) realized −$4 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -58% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -62% what you keep after slip
Net edge-62%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%1W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1
14 days+$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 43% −$5
other 15% +$2
crypto 14% +$2
finance 12% −$2
politics 15% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-62.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 3 -44.3% -49.6% 33% 33% -39.0%
≤90d 4 -58.2% -62.2% 25% 25% -58.6%
all 4 -58.2% -62.2% 25% 25% -58.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -62.2% 25% -58.6%
10% -65.8% 25% -62.5%
15% -69.1% 25% -66.2%
20% -72.1% 25% -69.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -54% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -58% · $-wt -54% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.25 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

64d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses1 / 3
Open positions3
Markets (closed)4 / 7
History coverage64d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Kash Patel out by June 30? No 50¢ 91¢ $2 $5 +$2 (+82%)
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 48¢ 89¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+84%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 62¢ 44¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-30%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April? Jun 09 $2 +$2 +67%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May? May 19 $2 −$2 -98%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Apr 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 47¢ $1 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 62¢ $3 14d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May? BUY Yes 40¢ $2 29d
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY Yes 48¢ $2 40d
Kash Patel out by June 30? BUY No 50¢ $3 49d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY Yes 67¢ $3 57d
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April? BUY No 58¢ $2 70d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.15 · official $11.15 (match) · 8 history records