Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T20:40:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

05 0x053f…0c6f other 17 markets active 2h ago coverage 103d

TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$4,840 (+5%) realized +$4,840 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip

Net edge-12%after slip

Net WR7%break-even

Win rate33%5W / 10L

Whale WR0%big bets

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$5,832per market

Trades / day1.2pace

Kalshi-fit59%portable

Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$8

7 days+$8

14 days+$8

30 days+$8

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +7%

net ROI/market (all)-3.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	4	+1.3%	-8.3%	75%	0%	-8.7%
≤30d	4	+1.3%	-8.3%	75%	0%	-8.7%
≤90d	4	+1.3%	-8.3%	75%	0%	-8.7%
all	15	+7.0%	-3.2%	33%	7%	-5.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1.2 tr/day

realistic slip~10%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-3.2%	7%	-5.0%
10% ← realistic here	-12.4%	7%	-14.1%
15%	-20.9%	7%	-22.4%
20%	-28.7%	7%	-30.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +1% too few recent

Fragile wins

80% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +7% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR 0% (≥$9,600) big bets weaker

Persistence

early +14% → late +1% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer

Win / loss size

+$972 vs −$7 · ×140.77 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×351.93 per $1 lost it wins $351.93

Copy size

≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

103d coverage

Net worth$1

Realized+$4,840

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)33%

Wins / losses5 / 10

Whale WR (big bets)0%

Open positions2

Markets (closed)15 / 17

History coverage103d

Avg bet$5,832

Trades / day1.2

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 15 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	79¢	79¢	$1	$1	+$0 (+0%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	10¢	11¢	$0	$0	+$0 (+6%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Jun 28	$192	+$4	+2%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 28	$424	−$4	-1%
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Jun 27	$260	+$8	+3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in March?	Jun 25	$20	$0	+1%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Mar 21	$9,600	$0	+0%
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Mar 21	$9,600	$0	+0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Mar 21	$9,600	$0	+0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Mar 21	$18,904	$0	+0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Mar 20	$9,600	$0	+0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Mar 20	$5,000	$0	+0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Mar 20	$9,600	$0	+0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Mar 20	$4	$0	+0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Mar 20	$100	$0	+0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Mar 20	$19,190	−$10	-0%
Clippers vs. Pelicans	Mar 20	$4,850	+$4,850	+100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL No	89¢	$178	1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY No	89¢	$179	2h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL No	79¢	$19	4h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL No	79¢	$73	4h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL No	79¢	$19	4h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL No	79¢	$19	4h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL No	79¢	$19	4h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL No	79¢	$10	4h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY No	79¢	$158	5h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	20¢	$41	6h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	21¢	$42	7h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL No	79¢	$158	7h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY No	79¢	$158	10h
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	SELL No	64¢	$128	11h
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	BUY No	63¢	$126	11h
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	SELL Yes	34¢	$19	11h
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	SELL Yes	34¢	$6	12h
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	SELL Yes	34¢	$1	12h
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	SELL Yes	34¢	$1	12h
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	SELL Yes	34¢	$20	12h
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	SELL Yes	34¢	$1	12h
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	SELL Yes	34¢	$5	12h
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	SELL Yes	34¢	$15	12h
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	BUY Yes	33¢	$66	14h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL No	78¢	$157	15h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY No	79¢	$159	15h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL No	75¢	$150	16h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY No	75¢	$152	16h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	11¢	$17	17h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	11¢	$4	17h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.81 · official $0.00 (match) · 150 history records