Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T14:13:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

05
0x053f…1c5c
crypto · 984 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$66 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$8 · open −$11
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$120
Realized+$8
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses737 / 234
Open positions19
Markets (closed)971 / 984
History coverage38d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day48.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%
Chart Positions 19 History 971 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days+$3
14 days−$1
30 days−$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 63¢ 60¢ $66 $63 −$3 (-5%)
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 30¢ 31¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Yes 82¢ 80¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+5%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? Yes 42¢ 36¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-15%)
Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+14%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Yes 66¢ 20¢ $7 $2 −$5 (-70%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026? Yes 9¢ 14¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+56%)
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Will A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-17%)
Will Civic Platform (GP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027? No 20¢ 6¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-67%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Yes 12¢ 2¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-82%)
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-88%)
Trump out as President by June 30? Yes 6¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-89%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 14 $6 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 14 $8 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$1 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 14 $7 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 12 $6 +$4 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 12 $6 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 12 $6 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 12 $6 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +9%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $10 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 11 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$4 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 11 $11 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 11 $6 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 93% +$15
world 3% +$5
other 2% −$9
weather 1% −$15
finance 0% +$1
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $5 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $5 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 41m
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 43m
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 43m
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 44m
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 44m
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $5 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $1 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET SELL Down 3¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 2h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 128 -0.5% -10.0% 76% 51% -9.1%
≤30d 623 -2.6% -11.8% 74% 46% -10.4%
≤90d 971 -0.8% -10.2% 76% 46% -9.3%
all 971 -0.8% -10.2% 76% 46% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover48.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.2% 46% -9.3%
10% ← realistic here -18.8% 29% -18.0%
15% -26.7% 16% -25.9%
20% -33.8% 8% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $119.85 · official $119.85 (match) · 3500 history records