Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T09:27:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
05 0x0542…ebc1 crypto 72 markets active 12h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,102 (+6%) realized +$1,102 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR69%break-even
Win rate82%59W / 13L
Whale WR88%big bets
Drawdown47%max
Avg bet$257per market
Trades / day10.4pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$280
7 days+$1,012
14 days+$900
30 days+$900
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$985
other 1% −$84
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +69%
net ROI/market (all)-4.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 70 +8.9% -1.5% 84% 71% -4.5%
≤30d 72 +5.9% -4.2% 82% 69% -5.1%
≤90d 72 +5.9% -4.2% 82% 69% -5.1%
all 72 +5.9% -4.2% 82% 69% -5.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.2% 69% -5.1%
10% -13.4% 39% -14.2%
15% -21.7% 22% -22.5%
20% -29.4% 11% -30.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 88% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +16% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$68 vs −$239 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.29 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,102
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses59 / 13
Whale WR (big bets)88%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)72 / 72
History coverage7d
Avg bet$257
Trades / day10.4
Drawdown47%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 72 Trades
no open positions (13 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 20 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 20 $6 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 20 $6 +$2 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 20 $4 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 20 $4 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 20 $3 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 20 $254 −$250 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 20 $277 −$270 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 20 $277 −$270 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 20 $275 +$105 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 20 $272 +$38 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 20 $271 +$19 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 20 $276 +$126 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 20 $274 +$80 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 20 $273 +$47 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 20 $544 +$66 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 20 $274 +$64 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 20 $274 +$59 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 20 $702 +$25 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 20 $277 +$158 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 20 $275 −$270 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 19 $701 +$16 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 19 $273 +$52 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 19 $982 +$196 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 19 $273 −$270 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 19 $37 +$10 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 19 $272 +$31 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 19 $273 +$52 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 19 $273 +$39 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 19 $713 +$243 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 19 $273 −$270 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 19 $275 +$93 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 19 $716 +$314 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 19 $272 −$270 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 19 $271 +$9 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 19 $713 +$246 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 19 $273 −$270 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 19 $272 +$29 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 19 $272 +$30 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 19 $273 +$48 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 19 $273 +$41 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 19 $283 +$573 +202%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 19 $274 +$63 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 19 $712 −$700 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 19 $273 +$56 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 18 $278 +$203 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 18 $273 +$46 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 18 $272 +$22 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 18 $273 +$51 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 18 $274 +$72 +26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $6 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $6 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $6 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $4 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $4 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $3 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $254 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $277 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $277 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $275 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $272 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $271 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $276 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $274 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $272 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $273 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $273 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $274 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $274 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $702 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $277 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $275 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $701 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $273 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $272 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $699 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $11 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $273 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $37 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $272 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 135 history records