Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T18:36:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
05 0x0547…3f4c crypto 51 markets active 2h ago coverage 501d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$7 (+1%) realized +$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate82%41W / 9L
Drawdown5%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 52% +$6
other 24% $0
politics 11% $0
tech 9% $0
economics 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 6 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 50 +0.6% -9.0% 82% 2% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 2% -8.8%
10% -17.7% 0% -17.6%
15% -25.7% 0% -25.5%
20% -33.0% 0% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 78% · top 2 82% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×4.41 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×20.07 per $1 lost it wins $20.07
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

501d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized+$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses41 / 9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)50 / 51
History coverage501d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown5%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? Jun 03 $4 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May? Jun 03 $44 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in April? May 04 $9 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in April? May 04 $36 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.40 in March? Apr 01 $10 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.20 in March? Apr 01 $34 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? Mar 03 $22 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid reach $44 in February? Mar 03 $24 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid hit $46 in January? Feb 02 $10 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.60 in January? Feb 02 $36 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $220 in December? Jan 02 $9 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid reach $52 in December? Jan 02 $36 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? Dec 02 $25 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in October? Nov 03 $12 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the most valuable company on October 31? Nov 03 $27 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2400 in September? Oct 03 $6 $0 +0%
Will Google have the top AI model on September 30? Oct 03 $15 $0 +1%
Will XRP reach $4.00 in September? Oct 03 $23 $0 +0%
Will OpenAi have the top AI model on August 31? Sep 01 $7 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $155 in August? Sep 01 $8 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $150 in August? Sep 01 $30 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in July? Aug 04 $12 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60K in July? Aug 04 $31 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in June? Jul 03 $16 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3200 in June? Jul 03 $17 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? Jun 18 $6 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May? Jun 18 $7 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.10 in May? Jun 18 $8 $0 +0%
U.S. recession before May 2025? May 03 $2 $0 +1%
Will Xi Jinping talk to Trump before May? May 03 $3 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1200 in April? May 03 $3 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60k in April? May 03 $4 $0 +0%
Mike Waltz out of Trump administration before May? May 03 $4 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be less than 20% on April 30? May 03 $9 $0 +2%
Will UCR hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Apr 18 $30 $0 -0%
Will another party win the most seats in the next Australian parliamen Apr 18 $29 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2025? Apr 16 $69 $0 -0%
Will the Green Party win the second most seats in the next Canadian el Apr 15 $15 $0 -0%
Will Cale Makar win the Hart Trophy? Apr 13 $24 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on March 31? Apr 02 $2 $0 +0%
Will Solana hit $190 in March? Apr 02 $4 $0 +0%
XRP all time high by March 31? Apr 02 $6 $0 +0%
Solana all time high by March 31? Apr 02 $7 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after May 2025 meeting? Mar 24 $22 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2025 World Series? Mar 10 $36 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs finish with the worst regular season record Mar 08 $17 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Mar 08 $15 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on February 28? Mar 03 $7 $0 +1%
Will Solana dip to $120 by February 28 2025? Mar 03 $33 +$6 +17%
Will CDU/CSU win the second most seats in the next German election? Feb 20 $16 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $40 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $4 29d
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May? BUY No 100¢ $44 29d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in April? BUY No 100¢ $9 60d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $36 62d
Will XRP reach $2.40 in March? BUY No 100¢ $10 91d
Will XRP reach $2.20 in March? BUY No 100¢ $34 92d
Will Hyperliquid reach $44 in February? BUY No 100¢ $3 120d
Will Hyperliquid reach $44 in February? BUY No 100¢ $21 120d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? BUY No 100¢ $22 122d
Will Hyperliquid hit $46 in January? BUY No 99¢ $10 149d
Will XRP reach $3.60 in January? BUY No 100¢ $36 150d
Will Solana reach $220 in December? BUY No 100¢ $9 180d
Will Hyperliquid reach $52 in December? BUY No 100¢ $36 181d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? BUY No 100¢ $25 210d
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in October? BUY No 100¢ $12 242d
Will NVIDIA be the most valuable company on October 31? BUY Yes 100¢ $27 242d
Will Ethereum dip to $2400 in September? BUY No 100¢ $6 272d
Will Google have the top AI model on September 30? BUY Yes 99¢ $15 272d
Will XRP reach $4.00 in September? BUY No 100¢ $23 273d
Will OpenAi have the top AI model on August 31? BUY No 100¢ $7 300d
Will Solana dip to $155 in August? BUY No 100¢ $8 301d
Will Solana dip to $150 in August? BUY No 100¢ $30 302d
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in July? BUY No 100¢ $12 334d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60K in July? BUY No 100¢ $31 334d
Will Ethereum reach $3200 in June? BUY No 100¢ $17 362d
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in June? BUY No 100¢ $16 364d
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.10 in May? BUY No 100¢ $8 395d
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? BUY No 100¢ $6 395d
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May? BUY No 100¢ $7 395d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.03 · official $40.03 (match) · 105 history records