Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T06:08:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

05
0x0547…9926
politics · 339 markets active 1h ago
4.5score
−$14,253 -13%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$17,528 · open −$92
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Net worth$4,510
Realized−$17,528
Unrealized−$92
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses150 / 174
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$201
Open positions15
Markets (closed)324 / 339
History coverage1242d
Avg bet$336
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%
Chart Positions 15 History 324 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,254
7 days+$2,410
14 days+$2,040
30 days+$3,579
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 32¢ 100¢ $323 $999 +$676 (+209%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $600 $632 +$32 (+5%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 16¢ $580 $608 +$28 (+5%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ $265 $459 +$194 (+73%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $440 $372 −$68 (-15%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $350 $299 −$51 (-15%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $330 $286 −$44 (-13%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 91¢ 90¢ $200 $199 −$1 (-1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $165 $155 −$10 (-6%)
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Norway 61¢ 60¢ $110 $109 −$1 (-1%)
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Uruguay 42¢ 42¢ $110 $109 −$1 (-1%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Yes 46¢ 100¢ $50 $109 +$59 (+117%)
Spread: France (-1.5) France 40¢ 40¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $74 +$24 (+47%)
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 35¢ $929 $1 −$928 (-100%)
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Yes 22¢ $120 $0 −$120 (-100%)
Iran Strike on Israel by February 28? No 80¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026? Yes 31¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? No 81¢ $85 $0 −$85 (-100%)
Cooper Kupp: Anytime Touchdown Yes 27¢ $45 $0 −$45 (-100%)
Trump declassifies UFO files in 2025? No 16¢ $585 $0 −$585 (-100%)
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Brazil 32¢ $110 $0 −$110 (-100%)
Spread: Newcastle United FC (-1.5) Qarabağ Ağdam FK 52¢ $300 $0 −$300 (-100%)
Kraken IPO by March 31, 2026? Yes 15¢ $743 $0 −$743 (-100%)
Battle of the Sexes: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nick Kyrgios Sabalenka 19¢ $340 $0 −$340 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 216.5 Jun 14 $1,014 +$909 +90%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $113 +$346 +307%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $644 +$900 +140%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 10 $782 −$770 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 09 $112 −$110 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $2,947 +$1,136 +38%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 06 $507 −$500 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 03 $254 +$70 +28%
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 03 $770 +$60 +8%
Spread: Thunder (-3.5) May 31 $2,299 +$2,143 +93%
Trump out as President before 2027? May 20 $631 −$231 -37%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? May 20 $300 −$196 -65%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 20 $20 +$3 +15%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 20 $200 −$185 -92%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 20 $763 +$5 +1%
Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026? Apr 03 $3,385 −$2,103 -62%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Apr 03 $250 +$8 +3%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 03 $26 −$7 -27%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 03 $320 +$41 +13%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 03 $1 $0 +0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 03 $1 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 03 $100 +$3 +3%
Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch? Apr 03 $100 +$28 +28%
Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch? Apr 03 $200 +$28 +14%
Metamask FDV above $1B one day after launch? Apr 03 $200 +$28 +14%
Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch? Apr 03 $200 +$69 +34%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 03 $290 +$1 +0%
Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch? Apr 03 $300 +$24 +8%
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by March 31? Apr 03 $10 +$2 +25%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March? Apr 03 $100 +$22 +22%
Backpack FDV above $700M one day after launch? Mar 24 $400 +$163 +41%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 05 $7,981 −$285 -4%
Kraken IPO by March 31, 2026? Mar 03 $743 −$743 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Mar 02 $712 +$211 +30%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in February? Mar 01 $100 +$45 +45%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in February? Mar 01 $106 +$45 +43%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in February? Mar 01 $300 +$75 +25%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Mar 01 $100 −$100 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026? Mar 01 $100 +$69 +70%
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026? Mar 01 $110 +$85 +77%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Mar 01 $400 +$148 +37%
Will Olympiakós SFP win on 2026-02-18? Feb 19 $100 +$61 +61%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-02-18? Feb 19 $100 +$96 +96%
Qarabağ Ağdam FK vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 3.5 Feb 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Spread: Newcastle United FC (-1.5) Feb 18 $300 −$300 -100%
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? Feb 18 $100 −$44 -44%
AI Industry Downturn by March 31, 2026? Feb 18 $40 −$34 -86%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? Feb 18 $40 −$32 -81%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in February? Feb 18 $108 −$95 -88%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of February? Feb 18 $100 −$88 -88%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 50% −$25,536
sports 19% +$3,634
other 19% +$3,700
crypto 6% +$1,573
world 6% −$1,177
tech 1% +$35
economics 0% +$149
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 61¢ $111 1h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 42¢ $112 1h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 46¢ $51 1h
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 216.5 BUY Under 52¢ $1,014 12h
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Mexico 41¢ $339 2d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Mexico 41¢ $305 2d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 57¢ $304 3d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 47¢ $254 3d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 32¢ $112 4d
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 24¢ $113 4d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 40¢ $102 4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $201 4d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 47¢ $528 4d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 38¢ $437 4d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 62¢ $575 4d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Spurs 46¢ $366 5d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Spurs 45¢ $435 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Spurs 45¢ $977 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 46¢ $2,947 7d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 21¢ $205 7d
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) BUY Spurs 52¢ $507 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $100 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $26 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $26 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $102 10d
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL Yes 74¢ $830 10d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 32¢ $638 14d
Spread: Thunder (-3.5) BUY Spurs 51¢ $800 14d
Spread: Thunder (-3.5) BUY Spurs 51¢ $1,498 14d
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY Yes 67¢ $770 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +62.5% +47.0% 67% 67% +29.4%
≤30d 15 +15.0% +4.1% 60% 47% +19.0%
≤90d 31 +11.0% +0.4% 71% 48% +0.4%
all 324 -2.0% -11.4% 46% 37% -24.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 37% -24.0%
10% -19.8% 30% -31.3%
15% -27.6% 25% -37.9%
20% -34.7% 19% -44.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,510.29 · official $4,510.29 (match) · 1248 history records