Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T09:05:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
05 0x0548…66a0 world 156 markets active 8d ago coverage 165d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$856 (-4%) realized −$856 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate60%94W / 62L
Whale WR93%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$148per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$79
30 days−$123
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 93% −$892
other 2% +$35
finance 2% +$50
politics 1% −$94
sports 1% +$30
crypto 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 30 +51.6% +37.1% 37% 33% -30.1%
≤90d 58 +17.9% +6.6% 45% 33% -19.8%
all 156 -1.1% -10.5% 60% 29% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 29% -13.0%
10% -19.1% 20% -21.3%
15% -26.9% 11% -28.9%
20% -34.0% 9% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
52% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 93% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$46 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

165d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$856
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses94 / 62
Whale WR (big bets)93%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)156 / 156
History coverage165d
Avg bet$148
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 156 Trades
no open positions (19 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 +$5 +474%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$14 +1331%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$9 +93%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$3 +262%
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 +$21 +414%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 +$6 +596%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$12 +114%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 12 $30 +$10 +35%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 08 $60 −$10 -17%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $50 +$12 +25%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $50 +$6 +12%
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? May 28 $60 −$60 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $101 +$8 +8%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 26 $306 +$30 +10%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31? May 23 $1 $0 +31%
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? May 23 $100 +$6 +6%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $10 +$8 +82%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $100 +$7 +7%
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30? May 12 $81 −$1 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 07 $10 +$17 +170%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Netanyahu talk to Joseph Aoun by April 17? Apr 19 $165 +$6 +4%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026? Apr 16 $80 +$6 +8%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? Apr 16 $52 +$33 +62%
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, Apr 16 $50 +$7 +13%
Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on April 7, 2026? Apr 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on April 6, 2026 Apr 10 $30 −$30 -100%
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Apr 09 $102 −$59 -58%
Israel strike on Yemen by April 30, 2026? Apr 09 $155 −$108 -70%
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 5, 2026? Apr 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on April 6, 2026? Apr 06 $1 −$1 -95%
Houthi strike on Israel by April 15, 2026? Apr 06 $5 −$5 -100%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 05 $50 +$10 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 7d
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 7d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 7d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $10 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $1 9d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 10d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 10d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 10d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 10d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 10d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 10d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 10d
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? BUY Yes $100 11d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 11d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 12d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 12d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 12d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 13d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 13d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes $1 13d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 13d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 13d
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 13d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 13d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 13d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 13d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $10 13d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 60¢ $50 17d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 74¢ $30 18d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 74¢ $30 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 471 history records