Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T07:33:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

05 0x054b…afd5 crypto 924 markets active 2h ago coverage 150d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)

✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover

Total PnL +$2,553 (+1%) realized +$2,846 · open −$293

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip

Net edge-17%after slip

Net WR51%break-even

Win rate52%478W / 441L

Whale WR59%big bets

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$199per market

Trades / day9.5pace

Fees−$463est.

Kalshi-fit88%portable

Net worth$1,007now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 150d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +51%

net ROI/market (all)-10.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	30	-3.4%	-12.6%	60%	60%	-13.2%
≤30d	46	-14.5%	-22.7%	52%	52%	-22.2%
≤90d	657	-26.7%	-33.6%	39%	39%	-30.7%
all	919	-0.5%	-10.0%	52%	51%	-9.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover9.5 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-10.0%	51%	-9.3%
10%	-18.6%	50%	-18.0%
15%	-26.5%	48%	-25.9%
20%	-33.7%	45%	-33.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

1% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR 59% (≥$500) strong on big bets

Persistence

early +43% → late -43% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$166 vs −$179 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×1.01 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

150d coverage

Net worth$1,007

Realized+$2,846

Unrealized−$293

Win rate (resolved)52%

Wins / losses478 / 441

Whale WR (big bets)59%

Est. fees paid−$463

Open positions5

Markets (closed)919 / 924

History coverage150d

Avg bet$199

Trades / day9.5

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 5 History 919 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5	Under	39¢	38¢	$400	$395	−$5 (-1%)
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5)	Sweden	68¢	68¢	$300	$298	−$2 (-1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	62¢	62¢	$200	$198	−$2 (-1%)
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5	Over	39¢	40¢	$100	$101	+$1 (+1%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June?	Yes	58¢	3¢	$300	$15	−$285 (-95%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 26 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5	Jun 20	$253	+$201	+79%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5	Jun 20	$101	−$25	-25%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score	Jun 20	$355	+$282	+79%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5	Jun 19	$304	+$296	+97%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5)	Jun 19	$403	+$110	+27%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$403	+$117	+29%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$608	−$600	-99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$353	+$139	+40%
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$304	+$222	+73%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score	Jun 17	$203	−$200	-98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$151	−$150	-99%
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 1.5	Jun 17	$101	+$49	+49%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5)	Jun 17	$254	+$327	+128%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$402	+$80	+20%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$354	+$177	+50%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5)	Jun 16	$403	+$123	+31%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5)	Jun 16	$304	+$188	+62%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$205	−$200	-98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$202	−$200	-99%
Spread: Spain (-2.5)	Jun 15	$507	−$500	-99%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5)	Jun 15	$201	+$34	+17%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5)	Jun 14	$201	+$65	+32%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5)	Jun 14	$201	+$55	+27%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5	Jun 14	$203	−$200	-99%
Spread: Germany (-3.5)	Jun 14	$304	−$300	-99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$202	+$105	+52%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5)	Jun 14	$203	−$27	-14%
Knicks vs. Spurs	Jun 14	$404	−$400	-99%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5)	Jun 14	$202	+$88	+44%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5	Jun 13	$201	−$200	-99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 13	$203	+$208	+102%
Spread: Canada (-1.5)	Jun 12	$202	+$69	+34%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5)	Jun 12	$203	−$200	-99%
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5)	Jun 12	$201	+$34	+17%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score	Jun 12	$203	−$36	-18%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 11	$202	+$88	+44%
Spurs vs. Knicks	Jun 09	$102	−$100	-98%
Spread: China PR (-1.5)	Jun 09	$201	+$61	+30%
Spurs vs. Knicks	Jun 09	$305	+$347	+114%
Knicks vs. Spurs	Jun 06	$203	−$200	-99%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5)	Jun 05	$203	−$200	-98%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?	May 23	$325	−$321	-99%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5	May 23	$225	−$205	-91%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-24?	May 22	$478	−$470	-98%
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-05-24?	May 22	$226	−$222	-98%
Spread: Knicks (-5.5)	May 21	$203	−$200	-98%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 11PM ET	May 21	$104	−$100	-96%
Spread: Thunder (-6.5)	May 21	$570	−$236	-41%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20?	May 20	$607	+$409	+67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET	May 20	$206	−$200	-97%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	39¢	$407	1h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5)	BUY Sweden	68¢	$303	1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	39¢	$102	1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	62¢	$202	1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5	SELL Over	42¢	$76	5h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	55¢	$253	25h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	54¢	$101	25h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score	BUY No	55¢	$355	25h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	50¢	$304	25h
Spread: Mexico (-1.5)	BUY Korea Republic	78¢	$403	31h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	77¢	$403	46h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	53¢	$608	46h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	100¢	$492	2d
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	49¢	$203	2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	71¢	$353	2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	57¢	$304	2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	76¢	$151	2d
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 1.5	SELL Under	100¢	$150	3d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5)	SELL Argentina	100¢	$581	3d
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 1.5	BUY Under	66¢	$101	3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	83¢	$402	4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	66¢	$354	4d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5)	BUY Argentina	43¢	$254	4d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	20¢	$205	4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	62¢	$202	5d
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5)	BUY Saudi Arabia	61¢	$304	5d
Spread: Spain (-2.5)	BUY Spain	55¢	$507	5d
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5)	BUY New Zealand	76¢	$403	5d
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5)	SELL Côte dIvoire	100¢	$235	5d
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5)	BUY Côte dIvoire	85¢	$201	6d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,007.15 · official $1,007.15 (match) · 2014 history records