Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T04:21:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
05 0x054d…97c5 politics 18 markets active 0h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$68 (-6%) realized −$13 · open −$55
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate67%8W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$62per market
Trades / day7.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$181now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 78% −$96
crypto 19% −$210
sports 4% +$54
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-20.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -29.4% -36.2% 50% 25% -50.6%
≤30d 12 -12.4% -20.7% 67% 42% -32.0%
≤90d 12 -12.4% -20.7% 67% 42% -32.0%
all 12 -12.4% -20.7% 67% 42% -32.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.7% 42% -32.0%
10% -28.3% 17% -38.5%
15% -35.2% 8% -44.4%
20% -41.6% 0% -49.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 66% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +16% → late -41% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$63 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.21 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$181
Realized−$13
Unrealized−$55
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses8 / 4
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions6
Markets (closed)12 / 18
History coverage7d
Avg bet$62
Trades / day7.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 24 $205 −$205 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Micah Lasher win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by 5–10%? Jun 24 $120 −$19 -16%
Will Micah Lasher win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by 10–15%? Jun 24 $37 −$21 -56%
Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? Jun 24 $5 +$1 +16%
Will Mac Deford be the Democratic nominee for SC-01? Jun 24 $20 +$3 +13%
Will Nancy Lacore be the Democratic nominee for SC-01? Jun 24 $7 +$1 +8%
Will Everett Wess be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Alabama? Jun 17 $140 +$2 +1%
Will Barry Moore be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama? Jun 17 $70 +$8 +11%
Will Troy Green be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Oklahoma? Jun 17 $67 +$5 +8%
Will N’Kiyla “Jasmine” Thomas be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Jun 17 $27 +$11 +41%
Will Rick Jackson win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary ele Jun 16 $87 +$24 +28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $205 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 55m
Will Jordin Canada have the highest steals per game in the WNBA 2026 r BUY Yes $2 1h
Will Rhyne Howard have the highest steals per game in the WNBA 2026 re BUY Yes 37¢ $8 1h
Will Yordan Alvarez record the most intentional walks during the 2026 BUY Yes 19¢ $30 1h
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier win the NY-13 Democratic Primary by 5–1 SELL Yes 19¢ $9 1h
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier win the NY-13 Democratic Primary by 5–1 SELL Yes 19¢ $36 1h
Will Jenny Costa Honeycutt be the Republican Nominee for SC-01? SELL No $0 2h
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier win the NY-13 Democratic Primary by 5–1 BUY Yes 30¢ $4 2h
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier win the NY-13 Democratic Primary by 5–1 BUY Yes 26¢ $15 2h
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier win the NY-13 Democratic Primary by 5–1 BUY Yes 19¢ $21 2h
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier win the NY-13 Democratic Primary by 5–1 BUY Yes 12¢ $65 2h
Will Micah Lasher win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by 5–10%? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 2h
Will Micah Lasher win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by 5–10%? SELL Yes 24¢ $7 2h
Will Micah Lasher win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by 5–10%? SELL Yes 25¢ $7 2h
Will Micah Lasher win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by 5–10%? SELL Yes 25¢ $7 2h
Will Micah Lasher win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by 5–10%? SELL Yes 25¢ $57 2h
Will Micah Lasher win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by 10–15%? SELL Yes $2 2h
Will Micah Lasher win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by 5–10%? SELL Yes 30¢ $22 3h
Will Alex Bores be the democratic nominee for NY-12? BUY Yes 10¢ $76 3h
Will Micah Lasher win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by 10–15%? SELL Yes $15 3h
Will Micah Lasher win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by 10–15%? BUY Yes 12¢ $13 3h
Will Micah Lasher win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by 10–15%? BUY Yes 12¢ $24 3h
Will Micah Lasher win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by 5–10%? BUY Yes 29¢ $120 3h
Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? SELL Yes 96¢ $6 3h
Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? BUY Yes 83¢ $5 3h
Will Mac Deford be the Democratic nominee for SC-01? SELL No 93¢ $23 4h
Will Nancy Lacore be the Democratic nominee for SC-01? SELL Yes 93¢ $7 4h
Will Nancy Lacore be the Democratic nominee for SC-01? BUY Yes 86¢ $7 4h
Will Jenny Costa Honeycutt be the Republican Nominee for SC-01? BUY No 60¢ $110 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $180.70 · official $180.70 (match) · 56 history records