Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T18:57:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
05 0x054d…6f42 crypto 883 markets active 0h ago coverage 45d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 45d only
✗ bot/MM pace (56 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$301 (-3%) realized −$301 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate82%727W / 156L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day55.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$106
14 days−$106
30 days−$106
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$203
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (56 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 177 -11.8% -20.2% 77% 9% -18.1%
≤30d 179 -11.5% -20.0% 78% 9% -18.0%
≤90d 883 -1.8% -11.1% 82% 20% -11.2%
all 883 -1.8% -11.1% 82% 20% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover55.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.1% 20% -11.2%
10% ← realistic here -19.6% 8% -19.7%
15% -27.4% 3% -27.5%
20% -34.5% 1% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
74% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$6 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

45d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$301
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses727 / 156
Open positions0
Markets (closed)883 / 883
History coverage45d ⚠
Avg bet$12
Trades / day55.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 883 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 15 $12 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $18 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $15 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 13 $12 −$9 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 12 $4 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 12 $4 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 12 $4 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 12 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 12 $6 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 12 $9 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 12 $12 −$3 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 12 $9 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 12 $6 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 12 $9 −$5 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$3 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 12 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 12 $6 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 12 $4 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $6 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $6 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $9 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $6 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $9 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $6 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $3 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $3 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $6 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $6 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $6 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $6 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $3 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records