trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | +0.1% | -9.4% | 100% | 0% | -9.4% |
| ≤30d | 1 | +0.1% | -9.4% | 100% | 0% | -9.4% |
| ≤90d | 6 | +0.2% | -9.3% | 100% | 0% | -9.4% |
| all | 15 | -17.5% | -25.4% | 67% | 7% | -23.7% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -25.4% | 7% | -23.7% |
| 10% | -32.5% | 7% | -31.0% |
| 15% | -39.0% | 7% | -37.7% |
| 20% | -45.0% | 7% | -43.8% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 15? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | $97 | $98 | +$1 (+1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026? | Jun 15 | $96 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026? | May 04 | $97 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Freecash - Get Paid Real Money be #2 Free App in the US Apple App | Apr 24 | $41 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Google Gemini be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 2 | Apr 24 | $56 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m | Mar 20 | $46 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in February? | Mar 20 | $50 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on January 12? | Feb 11 | $46 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from January 8 to January 10, 2026? | Jan 12 | $20 | −$2 | -9% |
| Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from December 19 to December 26, 20 | Jan 09 | $10 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Jan 09 | $14 | −$2 | -12% |
| Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Jan 09 | $13 | −$2 | -12% |
| UFC Fight Night: Cortes-Acosta vs. Gaziev (Heavyweight, Main Card) | Nov 26 | $225 | −$225 | -100% |
| Will DraftKings launch a prediction market in 2025? | Nov 17 | $31 | −$31 | -100% |
| Will KT Rolster win LoL Worlds 2025? | Nov 15 | $160 | +$96 | +60% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $130k in October? | Nov 07 | $160 | $0 | +0% |