Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T05:09:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
05 0x0557…1ee7 sports 23 markets active 1h ago coverage 121d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$75 (-16%) realized −$84 · open +$9
Gross ROI / mkt -35% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate39%7W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$83now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$19
7 days−$19
14 days−$19
30 days−$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% −$12
crypto 19% −$27
other 7% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-41.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +13.3% +2.5% 67% 67% -15.8%
≤30d 6 +13.3% +2.5% 67% 67% -15.8%
≤90d 6 +13.3% +2.5% 67% 67% -15.8%
all 18 -35.2% -41.4% 39% 22% -22.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -41.4% 22% -22.5%
10% -47.0% 17% -29.9%
15% -52.1% 6% -36.7%
20% -56.8% 6% -42.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 81% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% too few recent
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -35% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -58% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$14 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

121d coverage
Net worth$83
Realized−$84
Unrealized+$9
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses7 / 11
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions3
Markets (closed)18 / 23
History coverage121d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card) Justin Gaethje 21¢ 26¢ $33 $42 +$9 (+26%)
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Spain 56¢ 56¢ $27 $26 −$0 (-1%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $15 $16 +$1 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $59 +$17 +29%
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) Jun 15 $28 +$59 +213%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $56 +$7 +13%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $25 +$6 +24%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 14 $11 −$11 -97%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $100 −$98 -98%
Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships: Iva Jovic vs Kamilla Rakhimova Feb 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be less than $630b on February 28? Feb 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Heroic (BO5) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Feb 14 $11 +$1 +8%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? Feb 14 $2 −$1 -33%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? Feb 14 $3 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Feb 13 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Feb 13 $24 −$10 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Feb 13 $29 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Feb 13 $2 $0 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Feb 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Feb 13 $18 −$16 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Feb 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 56¢ $27 1h
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) SELL Sweden 99¢ $86 1h
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) BUY Sweden 31¢ $28 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 50¢ $39 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main SELL Sean OMalley 99¢ $39 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Sean OMalley 78¢ $31 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) SELL Josh Hokit 99¢ $31 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Josh Hokit 79¢ $25 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main SELL Sean OMalley 77¢ $25 2h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a dra BUY $2 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Sean OMalley 78¢ $25 2h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? AND BUY $10 3h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 50¢ $20 8h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $34 8h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $15 25h
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) BUY Spurs $11 25h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 21¢ $100 25h
Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships: Iva Jovic vs Kamilla Rakhimova BUY Rakhimova 15¢ $2 118d
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be less than $630b on February 28? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 118d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Heroic (BO5) - BLAST Slam Playoffs SELL Team Yandex 74¢ $12 121d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Heroic (BO5) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY Team Yandex 67¢ $4 121d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? SELL Yes $1 121d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? SELL Yes 28¢ $3 121d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Heroic (BO5) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY Team Yandex 69¢ $7 121d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 121d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? BUY Yes $2 121d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET SELL Down 35¢ $11 121d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $10 121d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up $3 121d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET SELL Up 44¢ $15 121d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $83.47 · official $95.45 · 54 history records