Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:46:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
05 0x0558…2868 weather 730 markets active 1h ago coverage 36d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$10 (-0%) realized −$13 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate99%714W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$86per market
Trades / day33.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,574now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$19
7 days−$109
14 days−$50
30 days−$28
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 139 -1.0% -10.4% 99% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 616 +0.0% -9.5% 100% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 718 +0.1% -9.5% 99% 0% -9.5%
all 718 +0.1% -9.5% 99% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.5% 0% -9.5%
10% ← realistic here -18.1% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$68 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$1,574
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses714 / 4
Open positions12
Markets (closed)718 / 730
History coverage36d
Avg bet$86
Trades / day33.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 718 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $149 $150 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 17? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $150 $150 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $149 $150 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $150 $150 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $150 $150 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 17? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $150 $150 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 17? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $149 $150 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $129 $130 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $99 $100 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 17? No 99¢ 100¢ $99 $100 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 17? No 99¢ 100¢ $99 $100 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 17? No 98¢ 96¢ $98 $96 −$2 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $149 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 17? Jun 17 $150 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $129 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on June 16? Jun 17 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 96°F or higher on June 16? Jun 17 $109 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 16? Jun 17 $104 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 16? Jun 17 $150 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 16? Jun 17 $105 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 16? Jun 17 $150 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on June 16? Jun 17 $150 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 16? Jun 17 $147 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on June 16? Jun 17 $149 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on June 16? Jun 17 $150 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on June 16? Jun 17 $150 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on June 16? Jun 17 $150 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 16? Jun 17 $150 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 16? Jun 17 $149 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 16? Jun 16 $150 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 16? Jun 16 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 16? Jun 16 $130 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $150 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $150 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 16? Jun 16 $149 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 15? Jun 16 $149 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 15? Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on June 15? Jun 16 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 15? Jun 16 $90 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 16 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 15? Jun 16 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 16 $149 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $150 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 15? Jun 15 $71 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $150 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $150 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $150 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 14? Jun 15 $150 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 14? Jun 15 $149 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 14? Jun 15 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 14? Jun 15 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 14? Jun 15 $149 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 14? Jun 15 $8 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 14? Jun 15 $54 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 14? Jun 15 $150 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 13? Jun 15 $150 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? Jun 15 $149 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 14? Jun 15 $145 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 14? Jun 15 $48 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 14? Jun 14 $150 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $24 54m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $26 55m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17? BUY Yes 99¢ $99 55m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $99 58m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $150 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $130 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 17? BUY Yes 99¢ $99 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $99 1h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $150 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $99 2h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $150 3h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $150 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $30 5h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $150 5h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $99 5h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $20 8h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 8h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 99¢ $30 8h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 99¢ $3 8h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 99¢ $6 8h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 99¢ $16 8h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $20 8h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 99¢ $44 8h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $129 8h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $129 8h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 99¢ $99 8h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $6 17h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $6 18h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $8 18h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,574.18 · official $1,573.60 (match) · 1903 history records