Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:27:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
05 0x055d…1ef0 sports 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 96d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$5,677 (-25%) realized −$5,677 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -51% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -59% what you keep after slip
Net edge-59%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate35%7W / 13L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,123per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,596
7 days+$741
14 days+$741
30 days−$219
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 40% −$4,213
other 36% +$2,036
crypto 24% −$3,636
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-55.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -29.7% -36.4% 50% 50% +4.9%
≤30d 5 -43.7% -49.1% 40% 40% -13.1%
≤90d 8 -38.6% -44.5% 50% 25% -12.5%
all 20 -51.2% -55.9% 35% 25% -33.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -55.9% 25% -33.0%
10% -60.1% 20% -39.4%
15% -63.9% 20% -45.3%
20% -67.5% 10% -50.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -51% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$1,458) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -66% → late -36% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
14.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$692 vs −$820 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

96d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5,677
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses7 / 13
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions0
Markets (closed)20 / 20
History coverage96d
Avg bet$1,123
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 20 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $98 −$95 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2,508 +$1,692 +67%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $1,014 −$1,000 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $1,043 +$145 +14%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $982 −$960 -98%
Will Los Angeles FC vs. Colorado Rapids SC end in a draw? May 10 $500 +$20 +4%
Will San Jose Earthquakes win on 2026-04-19? Apr 20 $1,449 +$40 +3%
Will Los Angeles FC vs. San Jose Earthquakes end in a draw? Apr 20 $100 −$97 -97%
Will Los Angeles FC win on 2026-03-14? Mar 15 $3,036 +$1,360 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Mar 15 $1,468 −$1,458 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Mar 15 $507 −$506 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Mar 15 $717 −$717 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Mar 15 $705 −$705 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Mar 15 $470 −$356 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Mar 15 $619 −$614 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Mar 15 $960 +$720 +75%
Pelicans vs. Rockets Mar 14 $2,130 +$870 +41%
Knicks vs. Pacers Mar 14 $520 −$519 -100%
Grizzlies vs. Pistons Mar 14 $80 −$80 -100%
Final Stage: Dominican Rep. vs. South Korea Mar 13 $3,551 −$3,551 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $98 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 59¢ $2,508 24h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 52¢ $1,014 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) SELL Josh Hokit 99¢ $1,188 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Josh Hokit 87¢ $1,043 2d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 24¢ $982 18d
Will Los Angeles FC vs. Colorado Rapids SC end in a draw? BUY Yes 96¢ $500 55d
Will Los Angeles FC vs. San Jose Earthquakes end in a draw? SELL Yes $3 58d
Will Los Angeles FC vs. San Jose Earthquakes end in a draw? BUY Yes $100 58d
Will San Jose Earthquakes win on 2026-04-19? BUY Yes 98¢ $500 58d
Will San Jose Earthquakes win on 2026-04-19? BUY Yes 96¢ $500 58d
Will San Jose Earthquakes win on 2026-04-19? BUY Yes 98¢ $449 58d
Will Los Angeles FC win on 2026-03-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $4,396 94d
Will Los Angeles FC win on 2026-03-14? BUY Yes 69¢ $3,036 94d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $473 94d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $12 94d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 94d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $8 94d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 94d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 94d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 94d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 94d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 94d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $17 94d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $11 94d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 94d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 94d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 94d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $16 94d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 94d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 311 history records