Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T21:32:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5

score

05 0x0560…1610 sports 5 markets active 2h ago coverage 115d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$974 (-50%) realized −$1,018 · open +$44

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -97% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -98% what you keep after slip

Net edge-98%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate0%0W / 2L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$390per market

Trades / day0.1pace

Fees−$12est.

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$944now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 115d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-97.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	no closed markets
≤30d	no closed markets
≤90d	no closed markets
all	2	-97.4%	-97.6%	0%	0%	-97.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-97.6%	0%	-97.6%
10%	-97.8%	0%	-97.8%
15%	-98.0%	0%	-98.0%
20%	-98.2%	0%	-98.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top —% · top 2 —% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI — too few recent

Fragile wins

—% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -97% · $-wt -97% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

— vs −$487 no data

Profit factor

×0.0 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

115d coverage

Net worth$944

Realized−$1,018

Unrealized+$44

Win rate (resolved)0%

Wins / losses0 / 2

Est. fees paid−$12

Open positions3

Markets (closed)2 / 5

History coverage115d

Avg bet$390

Trades / day0.1

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score	No	65¢	78¢	$500	$596	+$96 (+19%)
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5	Over	56¢	52¢	$300	$281	−$19 (-6%)
Spread: France (-5.5)	France	12¢	8¢	$100	$67	−$33 (-33%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	Feb 28	$500	−$487	-97%
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?	Feb 28	$500	−$486	-97%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	56¢	$316	1h
Spread: France (-5.5)	BUY France	12¢	$107	1h
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score	BUY No	65¢	$525	1h
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	SELL No	2¢	$13	114d
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?	SELL No	2¢	$14	114d
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?	BUY No	77¢	$500	114d
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	BUY No	82¢	$500	114d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $944.43 · official $983.78 · 7 history records