Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T07:19:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
05 0x0562…9d66 world 176 markets active 0h ago coverage 42d ⚠
BOTnot copyable world specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 41d only
✗ bot/MM pace (79 trades/day) — uncopyable
Total PnL +$32,457 (+12%) realized +$32,435 · open +$22
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +40% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate47%69W / 79L
Whale WR51%big bets
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$1,484per market
Trades / day79.0pace
Fees−$55est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$24,472now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6,776
7 days−$10,557
14 days+$1,561
30 days+$22,508
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 80% +$39,476
other 12% −$5,265
politics 3% +$787
tech 2% −$2,372
sports 1% −$773
culture 1% −$401
crypto 0% −$78
finance 0% +$502
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (79 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)+26.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -9.3% -18.0% 44% 28% -33.5%
≤30d 116 -14.0% -22.2% 41% 32% +0.5%
≤90d 148 +39.6% +26.3% 47% 36% +3.1%
all 148 +39.6% +26.3% 47% 36% +3.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover79.0 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +26.3% 36% +3.1%
10% +14.2% 30% -6.8%
15% ← realistic here +3.2% 25% -15.8%
20% -6.9% 20% -24.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +40% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 51% (≥$1,260) neutral
Persistence
early +89% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
12.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$992 vs −$476 · ×2.09 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.87 per $1 lost it wins $1.87
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage
Net worth$24,472
Realized+$32,435
Unrealized+$22
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses69 / 79
Whale WR (big bets)51%
Est. fees paid−$55
Open positions32
Markets (closed)148 / 176
History coverage42d ⚠
Avg bet$1,484
Trades / day79.0
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 32 History 148 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Kash Patel out by December 31? No 22¢ 49¢ $1,541 $3,430 +$1,889 (+123%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Yes 7¢ 72¢ $302 $3,218 +$2,917 (+967%)
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? No 14¢ 24¢ $1,690 $2,904 +$1,214 (+72%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $2,064 $1,975 −$89 (-4%)
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 16¢ 8¢ $4,080 $1,875 −$2,205 (-54%)
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? No 50¢ 32¢ $2,788 $1,784 −$1,004 (-36%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No 13¢ 14¢ $1,350 $1,450 +$100 (+7%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 19¢ 14¢ $1,908 $1,424 −$484 (-25%)
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 11¢ 5¢ $2,077 $843 −$1,233 (-59%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $880 $805 −$75 (-9%)
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by June 30, 2026? No 20¢ 20¢ $800 $780 −$20 (-2%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $860 $675 −$185 (-22%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? No 12¢ 11¢ $615 $564 −$51 (-8%)
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Yes 12¢ 19¢ $294 $484 +$190 (+65%)
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 61¢ 58¢ $508 $484 −$24 (-5%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 11¢ 19¢ $275 $475 +$200 (+73%)
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? No 64¢ 68¢ $384 $405 +$21 (+5%)
Will Trump speak to Maria Corina Machado in June? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $223 $246 +$23 (+10%)
Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027? No 14¢ 48¢ $70 $242 +$172 (+246%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Yes 7¢ 1¢ $755 $116 −$640 (-85%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? No 3¢ 3¢ $77 $85 +$9 (+11%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Yes 5¢ 14¢ $18 $51 +$33 (+187%)
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027? No 10¢ 7¢ $57 $40 −$17 (-30%)
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? No 57¢ 78¢ $28 $39 +$10 (+37%)
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $35 $25 −$11 (-31%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 15 $1,000 +$55 +6%
Another US strike on Venezuela by December 31? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 15 $6,602 −$6,558 -99%
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $3,292 −$322 -10%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $1,870 −$80 -4%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Jun 15 $1,000 −$600 -60%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 14 $2,058 +$49 +2%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 14 $2,550 +$1,110 +44%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $540 −$60 -11%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 14 $480 −$349 -73%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $9,417 −$1,926 -20%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 12 $1,664 +$599 +36%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 12 $200 +$300 +150%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $36 +$64 +178%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 12 $3,200 +$27 +1%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 12 $997 +$662 +66%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $69 +$31 +45%
Israel closes its airspace by June 13? Jun 11 $165 +$6 +4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 10 $20 −$10 -50%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $634 −$414 -65%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026? Jun 09 $332 −$332 -100%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $3,203 −$3,203 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $452 +$418 +93%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $3 −$2 -63%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 07 $674 +$294 +44%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? Jun 07 $2,676 +$541 +20%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Barack Obama by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $315 +$35 +11%
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 79m? Jun 07 $810 +$190 +24%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 05 $260 −$20 -8%
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027? Jun 05 $2 $0 -2%
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 202 Jun 05 $200 −$123 -61%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 3, 2026? Jun 05 $1,651 −$633 -38%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Diana Shnaider Jun 05 $1,844 −$1,844 -100%
Another GTA VI trailer released by May 31? Jun 04 $4,614 +$893 +19%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by May 31? Jun 03 $0 $0 -100%
Will there be fewer than 2 North Korea tests in May 2026? Jun 03 $224 −$189 -84%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by May 31? Jun 03 $320 +$40 +12%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $6,773 +$2,956 +44%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma Jun 03 $175 −$82 -47%
Will Trump praise Allah again by May 31? Jun 03 $193 −$193 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? Jun 03 $188 −$188 -100%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 03 $470 +$1,343 +286%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $1,759 −$1,438 -82%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 03 $377 −$376 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? Jun 03 $91 +$66 +73%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 02 $610 −$156 -26%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 02 $3,008 +$1,246 +41%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 02 $14,247 +$9,807 +69%
US x China tariff agreement by May 31? Jun 01 $181 +$19 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 10m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 10m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 10m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? BUY Yes 1¢ $6 10m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 10m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 10m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 10m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? BUY No 3¢ $9 19m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? BUY No 3¢ $48 28m
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $598 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 71¢ $714 1h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? SELL Yes 1¢ $5 2h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? SELL Yes 1¢ $5 2h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? SELL Yes 1¢ $47 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? BUY No 3¢ $0 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? BUY No 3¢ $9 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? BUY No 3¢ $9 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? BUY No 3¢ $2 3h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 38¢ $4 3h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 13¢ $188 4h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 13¢ $113 4h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 13¢ $14 4h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 13¢ $7 4h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY No 64¢ $384 4h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 13¢ $18 4h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 13¢ $6 4h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 13¢ $10 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24,471.51 · official $24,472.51 (match) · 3500 history records