Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:10:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
05 0x0565…f04c other 6 markets active 16h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$27 (-5%) realized −$16 · open −$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -46% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -51% what you keep after slip
Net edge-51%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%1W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$90per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$189now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% −$34
world 19% −$6
politics 19% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-51.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -46.0% -51.1% 25% 25% -18.7%
≤30d 4 -46.0% -51.1% 25% 25% -18.7%
≤90d 4 -46.0% -51.1% 25% 25% -18.7%
all 4 -46.0% -51.1% 25% 25% -18.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -51.1% 25% -18.7%
10% -55.8% 0% -26.4%
15% -60.1% 0% -33.5%
20% -64.0% 0% -40.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -46% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$12 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$189
Realized−$16
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses1 / 3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)4 / 6
History coverage6d
Avg bet$90
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Trump out as President before 2027? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $100 $95 −$5 (-5%)
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $100 $94 −$6 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $309 −$16 -5%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$2 +21%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $73 15h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $219 15h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 5d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $206 5d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $90 5d
Trump out as President before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $100 5d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $72 5d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $31 6d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $10 6d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $189.44 · official $189.44 (match) · 18 history records