Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:12:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
05 0x0567…2528 world 25 markets active 1h ago coverage 396d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$8 (-1%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate33%8W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 67% −$3
politics 16% −$4
other 10% $0
crypto 3% −$1
economics 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-15.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -3.3% -12.6% 50% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 11 -4.4% -13.5% 36% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 11 -4.4% -13.5% 36% 0% -10.1%
all 24 -6.8% -15.7% 33% 0% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.7% 0% -10.5%
10% -23.7% 0% -19.1%
15% -31.1% 0% -26.9%
20% -37.9% 0% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 70% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

396d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses8 / 16
Open positions1
Markets (closed)24 / 25
History coverage396d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 94¢ 94¢ $41 $41 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $3 $0 -4%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $98 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $120 −$1 -1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $7 −$1 -20%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $42 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $37 +$2 +5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $9 −$3 -30%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $2 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $39 +$1 +2%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $45 $0 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $44 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? Dec 18 $26 −$1 -4%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $2 $0 -2%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July? Dec 14 $2 $0 +2%
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? Jun 27 $23 −$4 -16%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? Jun 08 $24 $0 +0%
Will AUTO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Jun 07 $24 $0 +0%
Will José Carlos Sánchez Verazaín win the 2025 Bolivia presidential el Jun 07 $24 $0 +0%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 06 $24 $0 +0%
Will the May 2025 unemployment rate be ≥4.6%? Jun 06 $24 $0 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 05 $24 $0 -0%
Will another person win the South Korean election? Jun 04 $23 +$1 +4%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2800 on June 3? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1400 in May? Jun 03 $24 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $41 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $1 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $1 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $0 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $3 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $42 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $42 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 75¢ $41 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $41 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $11 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $28 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $11 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $11 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $14 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $40 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $40 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes $1 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 15¢ $2 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 15¢ $0 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $15 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $22 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $17 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $21 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $42 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $42 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $16 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $19 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 82¢ $39 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 78¢ $37 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 10¢ $5 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.43 · official $41.43 (match) · 75 history records