Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T12:40:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
05 0x0568…1483 crypto 173 markets active 0h ago coverage 132d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$100 (-4%) realized −$100 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate75%130W / 43L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$17
14 days−$17
30 days−$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$27
other 1% −$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 169 -1.3% -10.7% 77% 30% -10.0%
≤30d 169 -1.3% -10.7% 77% 30% -10.0%
≤90d 169 -1.3% -10.7% 77% 30% -10.0%
all 173 -3.6% -12.7% 75% 29% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.7% 29% -11.0%
10% -21.1% 6% -19.6%
15% -28.7% 2% -27.3%
20% -35.7% 1% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
46% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$7 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$100
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses130 / 43
Open positions0
Markets (closed)173 / 173
History coverage132d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 173 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 22 $36 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 22 $35 +$4 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 22 $35 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 22 $35 +$6 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 22 $35 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 22 $35 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 22 $35 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 22 $35 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 22 $35 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 22 $35 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 22 $14 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 22 $21 +$14 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 22 $20 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 22 $41 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 22 $31 −$15 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 22 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 22 $30 −$9 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 22 $21 +$9 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 22 $20 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 22 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 22 $20 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 22 $20 +$5 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 22 $20 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 22 $10 +$4 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 22 $20 +$4 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 22 $20 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 22 $21 −$18 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 22 $20 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 22 $20 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 22 $20 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 22 $20 −$6 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 22 $20 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 22 $20 +$3 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 22 $20 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 22 $20 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 22 $20 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 22 $20 −$8 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 21 $20 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 21 $20 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 21 $20 −$5 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 21 $20 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 21 $20 −$2 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 21 $20 +$5 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 21 $20 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 21 $20 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 21 $20 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 21 $20 −$6 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 21 $20 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 21 $20 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 21 $20 +$2 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET SELL Down 83¢ $39 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $36 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $35 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $35 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $35 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $35 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $35 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $35 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $14 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $35 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $21 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $21 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $20 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $38 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET SELL Up 19¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $20 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $21 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET SELL Down 69¢ $15 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $20 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $30 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $21 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $21 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $20 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $10 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 364 history records