Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T16:22:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
05 0x0568…dc48 sports 60 markets active 1h ago coverage 49d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$384 (+1%) realized +$447 · open −$63
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate61%35W / 22L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$507per market
Trades / day5.5pace
Fees−$164est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$2,449now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$117
14 days−$1,002
30 days−$2,650
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 58% +$1,498
sports 41% −$948
tech 1% −$350
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -3.6% -12.8% 67% 67% -7.6%
≤30d 39 -21.1% -28.7% 46% 46% -21.8%
≤90d 57 -4.1% -13.2% 61% 60% -8.7%
all 57 -4.1% -13.2% 61% 60% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.2% 60% -8.7%
10% -21.5% 49% -17.4%
15% -29.1% 42% -25.4%
20% -36.1% 16% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$529) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +19% → late -26% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$205 vs −$315 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

49d coverage
Net worth$2,449
Realized+$447
Unrealized−$63
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses35 / 22
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$164
Open positions3
Markets (closed)57 / 60
History coverage49d
Avg bet$507
Trades / day5.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 57 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? No 85¢ 86¢ $1,927 $1,936 +$9 (+0%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $377 $306 −$71 (-19%)
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Ecuador 68¢ 68¢ $209 $207 −$2 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $202 +$52 +26%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $3,956 +$474 +12%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $619 −$562 -91%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 15 $36 −$35 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $43 +$49 +114%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $814 +$139 +17%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $357 +$156 +44%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $410 −$409 -100%
Will Italy win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $964 −$961 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion - Map 2 Winner Jun 07 $467 +$553 +118%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 07 $160 −$160 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $299 −$299 -100%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? Jun 03 $350 −$350 -100%
Will SE Palmeiras vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol end in a draw? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-05-31? Jun 01 $113 +$41 +36%
Will Mexico win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $186 −$186 -100%
Will KFUM-Kameratene Oslo vs. Tromsø IL end in a draw? May 31 $354 −$354 -100%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 31 $431 −$431 -100%
World Championships: Canada vs. Finland May 30 $672 +$1,111 +165%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) May 30 $1,841 +$419 +23%
Will Dinamo 1948 win on 2026-05-29? May 30 $304 +$49 +16%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs OG (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $297 +$94 +32%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $144 −$144 -100%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs OG (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $808 −$332 -41%
Spread: FC Cincinnati (-2.5) May 24 $488 +$293 +60%
Will FC Cincinnati win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $1,118 −$52 -5%
Will FC Bayern München vs. VfB Stuttgart end in a draw? May 24 $126 +$23 +18%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-17? May 23 $172 −$172 -100%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner May 23 $146 −$146 -100%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Spirit (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 23 $125 −$125 -100%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs Legacy (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Playoffs May 23 $141 −$141 -100%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Playoffs May 23 $353 −$353 -100%
Will Deportivo Alavés vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid end in a draw? May 23 $126 +$48 +38%
Will Levante UD win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $775 +$362 +47%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Spirit - Game 1 Winner May 23 $9 +$12 +134%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs MOUZ (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Pla May 23 $157 +$86 +55%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner May 23 $391 +$232 +59%
Valorant: Joblife vs Team Liquid Academy (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Group D May 22 $1,629 −$1,629 -100%
Will Al Kholood Saudi Club win on 2026-05-21? May 21 $2 $0 -2%
Valorant: Team Liquid Academy vs Barça eSports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Group May 19 $6 +$5 +82%
Spread: Arsenal FC (-2.5) May 18 $879 +$812 +92%
Will FK Dinamo Moskva win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $83 −$83 -100%
Will FC Lorient vs. Le Havre AC end in a draw? May 18 $35 +$12 +36%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $156 +$56 +36%
Will Levante UD vs. RCD Mallorca end in a draw? May 17 $23 +$8 +36%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. Valencia CF end in a draw? May 17 $33 +$12 +38%
Will Elche CF vs. Getafe CF end in a draw? May 17 $133 +$61 +46%
Will Real Oviedo vs. Deportivo Alavés end in a draw? May 17 $257 +$102 +40%
Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $20 +$8 +40%
Will FK Zenit win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $2,171 +$911 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 86¢ $197 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 85¢ $372 1h
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Ecuador 68¢ $211 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 85¢ $745 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 85¢ $621 2h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY No 79¢ $202 3d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 89¢ $2,522 4d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $36 4d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 89¢ $824 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 64¢ $300 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 64¢ $206 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 64¢ $91 5d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 46¢ $32 5d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 89¢ $610 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 37¢ $22 5d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 46¢ $11 5d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 85¢ $814 6d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $282 8d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 8d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $4 8d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $6 8d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $6 8d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $8 8d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 8d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $13 8d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $17 8d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $21 8d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $8 8d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY No 69¢ $357 8d
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 1 Winner BUY B8 56¢ $229 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,449.09 · official $2,449.09 (match) · 337 history records