Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T23:33:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
05 0x0569…d8cf sports 20 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Total PnL −$31 (-35%) realized −$27 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%4W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day12.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$12now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$23
7 days−$27
14 days−$27
30 days−$27
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 61% −$30
other 39% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-38.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -32.4% -38.9% 25% 25% -42.3%
≤30d 16 -32.4% -38.9% 25% 25% -42.3%
≤90d 16 -32.4% -38.9% 25% 25% -42.3%
all 16 -32.4% -38.9% 25% 25% -42.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -38.9% 25% -42.3%
10% -44.7% 25% -47.9%
15% -50.1% 25% -52.9%
20% -55.0% 25% -57.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 65% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -36% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -32% · $-wt -36% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -68% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$12
Realized−$27
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses4 / 12
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)16 / 20
History coverage3d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day12.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Yes 39¢ 34¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-12%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 49¢ 50¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Yes 43¢ 40¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-8%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 60¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Yes 30¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will there be exactly 5 games played during the 2026 NBA Finals? No 32¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Over 43¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Wemby Cry During the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 45¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 Under 44¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Yes 50¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Exact Score: United States 0 - 0 Paraguay? Yes 12¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes 54¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $2 $0 -17%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 +$5 +262%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Wemby Cry During the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $13 −$13 -98%
Will there be exactly 5 games played during the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-1 be the exact series outcome? Jun 14 $29 −$16 -57%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $11 +$6 +53%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $1 +$1 +82%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -99%
Exact Score: United States 0 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $4 −$2 -49%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $3 +$5 +158%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 1.5 SELL Over 28¢ $2 18m
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 1.5 BUY Over 32¢ $2 55m
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $2 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $3 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $7 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $3 18h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 50¢ $3 19h
Will Wemby Cry During the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 19h
Will there be exactly 5 games played during the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 32¢ $1 20h
Will Wemby Cry During the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 55¢ $10 20h
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-1 be the exact series outcome? SELL No 17¢ $3 20h
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-1 be the exact series outcome? SELL No 24¢ $5 20h
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-1 be the exact series outcome? SELL Yes 58¢ $5 20h
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-1 be the exact series outcome? BUY No 48¢ $5 20h
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-1 be the exact series outcome? BUY Yes 63¢ $5 20h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 99¢ $16 20h
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-1 be the exact series outcome? BUY No 65¢ $16 23h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $11 25h
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 63¢ $2 2d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $2 2d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 BUY Under 44¢ $2 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 60¢ $2 2d
Exact Score: United States 0 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 2d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 54¢ $1 2d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 2d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $1 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $2 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 53¢ $2 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 49¢ $3 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.30 · official $12.30 (match) · 36 history records