Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T22:13:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
05 0x0576…2df7 crypto 23 markets active 1h ago coverage 60d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$57 (+3%) realized +$57 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate48%11W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$97per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$215
7 days−$74
14 days−$74
30 days−$74
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 58% +$65
other 30% −$293
sports 12% +$219
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +8.2% -2.1% 33% 33% -16.6%
≤30d 3 +8.2% -2.1% 33% 33% -16.6%
≤90d 23 -4.7% -13.8% 48% 48% -9.9%
all 23 -4.7% -13.8% 48% 48% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.8% 48% -9.9%
10% -22.0% 48% -18.5%
15% -29.6% 48% -26.4%
20% -36.5% 43% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late -20% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$68 vs −$63 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

60d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$57
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses11 / 12
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)23 / 23
History coverage60d
Avg bet$97
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 23 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $102 −$4 -4%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $275 +$219 +79%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $565 −$289 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET May 14 $26 +$21 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET May 13 $104 −$41 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET May 04 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET May 04 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET May 04 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET May 04 $52 +$54 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET May 04 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET May 04 $103 +$89 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET May 04 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET May 04 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET May 04 $52 +$50 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET May 04 $26 +$28 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET May 04 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET May 04 $103 +$58 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET May 04 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET May 04 $103 +$62 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Apr 26 $100 +$59 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Apr 26 $100 +$59 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Apr 26 $100 +$45 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Apr 26 $10 −$5 -53%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 44¢ $0 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 43¢ $98 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 43¢ $102 1h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 55¢ $275 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 40¢ $276 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 80¢ $565 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $26 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET SELL Down 33¢ $63 43d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $104 43d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $103 51d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $52 51d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 51d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $52 52d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 52d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $103 52d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $52 52d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 52d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $52 52d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $26 52d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $26 52d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $103 52d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $105 52d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $103 52d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $100 59d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $100 59d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $100 59d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET SELL Down 29¢ $5 59d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $10 59d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 47 history records