Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:31:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
05 0x0577…fc01 politics 60 markets active 2h ago coverage 79d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$277 (-0%) realized −$276 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate14%8W / 50L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,361per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$1,230now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$10
14 days−$22
30 days−$70
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% +$2
politics 45% −$72
world 3% −$292
economics 2% −$2
finance 1% +$3
crypto 1% +$2
sports 0% +$61
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-6.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 31 -1.2% -10.6% 10% 3% -9.7%
≤90d 58 +2.9% -6.9% 14% 9% -9.9%
all 58 +2.9% -6.9% 14% 9% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.9% 9% -9.9%
10% -15.8% 9% -18.5%
15% -24.0% 9% -26.4%
20% -31.4% 9% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 55% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,662) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +7% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$10 · ×2.48 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

79d coverage
Net worth$1,230
Realized−$276
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses8 / 50
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)58 / 60
History coverage79d
Avg bet$1,361
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 58 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $830 $830 −$0 (-0%)
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $401 $400 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $1,448 −$2 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $1,326 −$2 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $1,451 −$2 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $1,522 −$2 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $1,377 −$2 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $1,543 −$2 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $1,175 −$2 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $3,479 −$5 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $1,677 −$2 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $1,068 −$1 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $1,171 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? Jun 04 $287 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in May? Jun 04 $577 +$1 +0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $1,179 −$2 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $1,008 −$1 -0%
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 26 $1,264 −$1 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $1,170 −$2 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $1,062 −$2 -0%
Will Kemi Badenoch be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in May 25 $1,066 −$1 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $1,289 −$2 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? May 24 $616 −$1 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $1,009 −$1 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $1,265 −$2 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $1,693 −$2 -0%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20? May 22 $66 +$45 +67%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $6,492 −$7 -0%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs May 21 $56 −$56 -100%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 20 $1,297 −$2 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 19 $4,835 −$6 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 19 $1,621 −$2 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 19 $1,626 −$2 -0%
Texas Rangers vs. Colorado Rockies May 19 $45 +$61 +134%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 18 $1,674 −$3 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 09 $520 −$67 -13%
Will Plaid Cymru win the most seats in the 2026 Welsh Senedd election? May 06 $152 −$24 -16%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April? May 05 $1,207 +$3 +0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 21 $1,682 −$2 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 21 $5,147 −$5 -0%
Senators vs. Hurricanes Apr 21 $28 −$28 -100%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $3,126 −$3 -0%
Magic vs. 76ers Apr 16 $3 +$2 +83%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $1,768 −$2 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 10 $1,205 −$1 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 09 $1,603 −$2 -0%
Blackhawks vs. Sharks Apr 09 $57 +$37 +64%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 06 $1,662 −$2 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 06 $1,700 −$2 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 05 $1,671 −$2 -0%
Will Zach Johnson win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 05 $1,674 −$3 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 04 $1,664 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $401 1h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $830 21h
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,446 3d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,448 3d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,325 5d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,326 5d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,448 5d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,451 5d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,520 5d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,522 6d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,375 6d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,377 6d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,541 10d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,543 10d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,173 11d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,175 11d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $339 12d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,675 12d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $340 12d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,677 13d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,067 13d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,068 13d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,169 13d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,171 13d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,177 17d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,179 17d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,006 22d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,008 22d
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in May? BUY No 100¢ $577 22d
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $1,263 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,230.17 · official $1,230.17 (match) · 184 history records