Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T20:01:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
05 0x0577…08c8 crypto 64 markets active 1h ago coverage 21d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$323 (+6%) realized +$455 · open −$132
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate83%52W / 11L
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$87per market
Trades / day6.0pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$247
7 days+$296
14 days+$397
30 days+$404
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 41% +$455
sports 31% +$31
weather 20% +$26
other 7% −$249
world 1% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-5.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 +4.7% -5.2% 79% 34% -2.9%
≤30d 63 +4.1% -5.8% 83% 30% -2.8%
≤90d 63 +4.1% -5.8% 83% 30% -2.8%
all 63 +4.1% -5.8% 83% 30% -2.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.8% 30% -2.8%
10% -14.8% 17% -12.1%
15% -23.0% 10% -20.6%
20% -30.6% 6% -28.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$26 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.4 per $1 lost it wins $2.4
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$455
Unrealized−$132
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses52 / 11
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)63 / 64
History coverage21d
Avg bet$87
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 63 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 93¢ 0¢ $132 $0 −$132 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $261 +$106 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $140 +$121 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 15 $41 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 15 $124 +$8 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $104 +$13 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 15 $72 +$12 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $113 −$15 -13%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $149 +$8 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 14 $103 +$24 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 14 $73 +$8 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $114 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 13 $104 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 13 $208 +$47 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 13 $104 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 13 $104 +$33 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 13 $72 −$20 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 13 $72 +$26 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 13 $73 +$8 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 13 $72 +$12 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 13 $72 +$18 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 13 $73 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 13 $72 −$11 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 13 $72 +$51 +70%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Harry Wendelken vs Adam Walton Jun 13 $103 −$32 -31%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $112 +$6 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $108 +$4 +4%
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Federico Bondioli Jun 11 $99 +$8 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $108 +$5 +4%
Ilkley: Henrique Rocha vs Charles Broom Jun 10 $99 +$8 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 10? Jun 10 $105 +$6 +6%
Will Belarus win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $125 −$125 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on June 10? Jun 10 $96 +$8 +8%
Modena: Andrea Lazaro Garcia vs Julia Grabher Jun 09 $118 +$7 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 09 $101 +$1 +1%
Libema Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Botic van de Zandschulp Jun 09 $145 −$29 -20%
Libema Open: Jaume Munar vs Martin Damm Jun 09 $137 +$8 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on June 9? Jun 09 $137 +$2 +1%
Modena: Martina Trevisan vs Jennifer Ruggeri Jun 08 $123 +$13 +11%
Lyon: Lorenzo Giustino vs Daniel Rincon Jun 08 $118 +$5 +4%
Modena: Noma Noha Akugue vs Sarah Rakotomanga Jun 08 $114 +$5 +4%
Ilkley: Alicia Dudeney vs Himeno Sakatsume Jun 08 $101 +$12 +12%
Bratislava: Thanasi Kokkinakis vs Tomas Barrios Jun 08 $95 +$6 +6%
Libema Open: Benjamin Bonzi vs Mees Rottgering Jun 08 $93 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 8? Jun 08 $89 +$4 +4%
Libema Open, Qualification: Robin Montgomery vs Joanna Garland Jun 07 $86 +$3 +4%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Antonia Ruzic vs Aoi Ito Jun 07 $82 +$4 +5%
Set 1 Winner: Zhang vs Klugman Jun 07 $80 +$1 +2%
Stuttgart Open, Qualification: Marc-Andrea Huesler vs Gauthier Onclin Jun 07 $78 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 7? Jun 07 $76 +$2 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Down 76¢ $366 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $261 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $261 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $140 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET SELL Up 54¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $41 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 93¢ $132 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET SELL Up 56¢ $132 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $124 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET SELL Up 59¢ $117 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $104 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET SELL Up 61¢ $85 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $72 5h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 15? SELL No 82¢ $99 5h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 15? BUY No 93¢ $113 25h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $157 25h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $149 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET SELL Up 68¢ $127 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $103 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET SELL Down 58¢ $80 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $73 28h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $118 28h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 14? BUY No 97¢ $114 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET SELL Up 63¢ $11 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET SELL Up 55¢ $97 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $104 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Up 57¢ $142 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $104 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Up 60¢ $112 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.07 (match) · 137 history records