Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:59:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
05 0x0580…1b97 finance 121 markets active 1h ago coverage 240d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$50 (-4%) realized −$51 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate73%85W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$67now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$12
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
finance 66% +$13
sports 20% −$13
weather 6% −$10
other 4% −$25
world 2% −$9
politics 1% −$4
tech 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-22.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -32.3% -38.8% 67% 0% -10.5%
≤30d 27 -17.6% -25.5% 78% 7% -10.3%
≤90d 116 -13.8% -22.0% 73% 24% -14.1%
all 116 -13.8% -22.0% 73% 24% -14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.0% 24% -14.1%
10% -29.5% 16% -22.3%
15% -36.3% 9% -29.8%
20% -42.5% 4% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
66% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$5 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

240d coverage
Net worth$67
Realized−$51
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses85 / 31
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions5
Markets (closed)116 / 121
History coverage240d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 116 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on June 17? Yes 96¢ 94¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? No 81¢ 98¢ $8 $9 +$2 (+21%)
Will AJ Dybantsa be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? Yes 76¢ 82¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+9%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? No 60¢ 70¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+17%)
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? Yes 37¢ 28¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-26%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on June 16? Jun 16 $10 $0 +3%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on June 16? Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
Will Victor Wembanyama record a quadruple double this season? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 08 $10 −$10 -100%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on June 1? Jun 01 $60 +$2 +4%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Jun 01 $3 −$3 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jun 01 $3 −$3 -100%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on May 29? May 29 $10 +$1 +10%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $765 on May 29? May 29 $10 $0 +4%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on May 28? May 28 $20 +$3 +13%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on May 28? May 28 $50 +$2 +4%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on May 27? May 27 $40 $0 +1%
Will Joe Mazzulla win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year? May 27 $5 $0 +6%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $725 on May 26? May 26 $25 $0 +1%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $760 on May 26? May 26 $10 $0 +2%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $730 on May 22? May 22 $10 $0 +2%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $10 +$5 +46%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on May 17? May 20 $5 $0 +9%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $720 on May 20? May 20 $50 $0 +1%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $730 on May 19? May 19 $2 $0 +10%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $725 on May 19? May 19 $20 $0 +1%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $750 on May 19? May 19 $40 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 16? May 19 $3 −$3 -100%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $730 on May 18? May 18 $5 $0 +6%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $750 on May 18? May 18 $5 $0 +1%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $760 on May 18? May 18 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C or higher on May 16? May 18 $3 $0 +8%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? May 16 $5 −$4 -75%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 16 $2 $0 +10%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $770 on May 15? May 15 $10 $0 +1%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on May 15? May 15 $10 $0 +2%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $760 on May 15? May 15 $8 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 14? May 15 $5 +$1 +25%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on May 14? May 14 $20 $0 +1%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $725 on May 14? May 14 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C or higher on May 13? May 14 $10 +$1 +14%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on May 13? May 14 $2 −$2 -100%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on May 13? May 13 $15 $0 +2%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $730 on May 13? May 13 $5 $0 +5%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $725 on May 13? May 13 $10 $0 +1%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 13 $3 +$1 +31%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 12? May 13 $5 $0 +4%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $725 on May 12? May 12 $15 +$1 +4%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $730 on May 12? May 12 $3 $0 +6%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on May 12? May 12 $15 $0 +1%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 12 $1 $0 -18%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C or higher on May 12? May 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 11? May 12 $10 +$4 +37%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on June 17? BUY Yes 96¢ $50 1h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 34h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on June 16? BUY Yes 97¢ $10 34h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 67¢ $10 12d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 58¢ $3 17d
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on June 1? BUY Yes 96¢ $30 17d
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on June 1? BUY Yes 96¢ $30 17d
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $765 on May 29? BUY No 96¢ $10 19d
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on May 29? BUY Yes 90¢ $10 19d
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on May 28? BUY Yes 98¢ $30 20d
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on May 28? BUY No 88¢ $20 20d
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on May 28? BUY Yes 94¢ $20 20d
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on May 27? BUY Yes 99¢ $20 21d
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on May 27? BUY Yes 99¢ $20 21d
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $760 on May 26? BUY No 98¢ $10 25d
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $725 on May 26? BUY Yes 99¢ $25 25d
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $730 on May 22? BUY Yes 98¢ $10 26d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 68¢ $10 28d
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $720 on May 20? BUY Yes 99¢ $50 28d
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals? BUY Yes 51¢ $2 29d
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $750 on May 19? BUY No 99¢ $40 29d
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $725 on May 19? BUY Yes 99¢ $20 29d
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $730 on May 19? BUY Yes 91¢ $2 29d
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $750 on May 18? BUY No 99¢ $5 30d
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $760 on May 18? BUY No 99¢ $5 31d
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $730 on May 18? BUY Yes 94¢ $5 31d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on May 17? BUY No 91¢ $5 31d
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? SELL No 22¢ $1 31d
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Spurs vs. Timberwolves SELL Spurs 96¢ $2 32d
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $760 on May 15? BUY No 99¢ $8 33d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $67.01 · official $67.01 (match) · 270 history records