Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T12:32:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
05 0x0581…f89e weather 181 markets active 1h ago coverage 219d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$100 (-1%) realized −$106 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate77%125W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$260now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$98
7 days−$112
14 days−$133
30 days−$133
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 58% −$81
weather 25% +$10
sports 8% −$1
other 6% −$51
economics 2% +$8
politics 1% −$4
tech 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 90 -6.4% -15.3% 86% 7% -15.1%
≤30d 119 -5.2% -14.3% 79% 6% -13.9%
≤90d 119 -5.2% -14.3% 79% 6% -13.9%
all 162 -5.1% -14.1% 77% 12% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.1% 12% -10.8%
10% -22.4% 6% -19.4%
15% -29.9% 6% -27.2%
20% -36.7% 4% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$19 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

219d coverage
Net worth$260
Realized−$106
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses125 / 37
Open positions16
Markets (closed)162 / 181
History coverage219d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 162 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 26? No 94¢ 94¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on June 24? No 94¢ 100¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C on June 24? No 83¢ 100¢ $17 $20 +$3 (+20%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 24? No 97¢ 100¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C on June 24? No 95¢ 100¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on June 25? No 97¢ 98¢ $19 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 25? No 95¢ 97¢ $19 $19 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 26? No 95¢ 96¢ $19 $19 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 24? No 97¢ 95¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on June 25? No 97¢ 90¢ $19 $18 −$1 (-7%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 26? No 92¢ 93¢ $17 $17 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 24? No 97¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on June 26? No 94¢ 92¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-2%)
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 25? No 97¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 25? No 95¢ 98¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 25? No 87¢ 88¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 23? Jun 24 $19 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on June 23? Jun 24 $19 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on June 23? Jun 23 $19 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 39°C or higher on June 23? Jun 23 $19 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 23? Jun 23 $19 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 23? Jun 23 $19 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 23? Jun 23 $19 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 18? Jun 23 $0 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on June 20? Jun 23 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 17? Jun 23 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 19? Jun 23 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 17? Jun 23 $19 −$19 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 9AM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 11AM ET Jun 23 $29 −$29 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 29°C on June 22? Jun 22 $19 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 40°C on June 22? Jun 22 $19 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 26°C or below on June 22? Jun 22 $19 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 22? Jun 22 $19 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on June 22? Jun 22 $19 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C or higher on June 22? Jun 22 $19 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 22? Jun 22 $14 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on June 22? Jun 22 $19 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C on June 22? Jun 22 $19 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 22? Jun 22 $19 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 22? Jun 22 $19 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 22? Jun 22 $19 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C or below on June 23? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on June 21? Jun 22 $19 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 19? Jun 22 $15 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 20? Jun 22 $19 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 18? Jun 22 $19 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 21? Jun 21 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on June 21? Jun 21 $19 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on June 21? Jun 21 $19 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 21? Jun 21 $4 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on June 21? Jun 21 $19 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 21? Jun 21 $19 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 21? Jun 21 $19 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 37°C or higher on June 21? Jun 21 $19 +$1 +4%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 21? Jun 21 $19 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 20? Jun 20 $19 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 29°C on June 20? Jun 20 $19 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C on June 20? Jun 20 $19 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 20? Jun 20 $19 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on June 20? Jun 20 $19 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 37°C or higher on June 20? Jun 20 $19 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 20? Jun 20 $18 +$2 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 20? Jun 20 $18 +$2 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 19? Jun 20 $10 +$1 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on June 26? BUY No 94¢ $14 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 26? BUY No 94¢ $25 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 25? BUY No 87¢ $4 6h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 26? BUY No 95¢ $19 6h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 26? BUY No 92¢ $17 6h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on June 25? BUY No 97¢ $19 28h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C on June 24? BUY No 83¢ $17 28h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 25? BUY No 95¢ $19 28h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on June 25? BUY No 97¢ $19 28h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 24? BUY No 97¢ $19 29h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 25? BUY No 95¢ $5 29h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 25? BUY No 97¢ $5 29h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 24? BUY No 97¢ $19 29h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 23? BUY No 97¢ $19 2d
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 24? BUY No 97¢ $15 2d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 39°C or higher on June 23? BUY No 97¢ $19 2d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C on June 24? BUY No 95¢ $19 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on June 24? BUY No 94¢ $19 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 23? BUY No 96¢ $19 2d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on June 23? BUY No 97¢ $19 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C or below on June 23? BUY No 95¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 23? BUY No 94¢ $19 3d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on June 23? BUY No 96¢ $19 3d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 22? BUY No 97¢ $19 3d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 29°C on June 22? BUY No 96¢ $19 3d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 23? BUY No 97¢ $19 3d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 22? BUY No 93¢ $19 3d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 40°C on June 22? BUY No 97¢ $19 3d
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 22? BUY No 95¢ $14 3d
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on June 22? BUY No 94¢ $19 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $260.07 · official $260.07 (match) · 601 history records