Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T23:47:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
05 0x0581…f2dc other 16 markets active 2h ago coverage 22d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$55 (+12%) realized +$56 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate36%5W / 9L
Drawdown76%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$101now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$16
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days+$30
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 79% +$1
sports 20% +$34
crypto 1% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -5.9% -14.9% 31% 23% -11.2%
≤30d 14 -0.5% -10.0% 36% 29% +0.4%
≤90d 14 -0.5% -10.0% 36% 29% +0.4%
all 14 -0.5% -10.0% 36% 29% +0.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 29% +0.4%
10% -18.6% 29% -9.2%
15% -26.5% 29% -18.0%
20% -33.7% 21% -26.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 57% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +11% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +78% → late -79% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$9 · ×2.43 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.35 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$101
Realized+$56
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses5 / 9
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)14 / 16
History coverage22d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown76%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $75 $73 −$2 (-2%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 67¢ 68¢ $28 $28 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $12 −$12 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Sweden? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $73 +$32 +44%
Ricardo Pepi: 1+ goals Jun 20 $18 −$18 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Australia? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco? Jun 20 $3 +$15 +471%
Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals Jun 19 $19 −$19 -100%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $52 +$3 +5%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$31 +303%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $49 +$34 +70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $28 1h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 24¢ $77 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $105 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $73 5h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 23¢ $73 5h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Sweden? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 16h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 16h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $12 16h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 26h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 26h
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes $4 26h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $11 26h
Ricardo Pepi: 1+ goals BUY Yes 35¢ $18 29h
Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals BUY Yes 40¢ $19 29h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $37 29h
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes $3 38h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $3 39h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $32 4d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $42 4d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 5d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $3 5d
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 15¢ $7 5d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 BUY Over 69¢ $19 5d
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 15¢ $19 5d
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $52 20d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $52 21d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 99¢ $82 21d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 57¢ $46 21d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 58¢ $2 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $101.20 · official $101.20 (match) · 59 history records